IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/mathme/v79y2014i2p195-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Irreversible investments with delayed reaction: an application to generation re-dispatch in power system operation

Author

Listed:
  • Magnus Perninge
  • Lennart Söder

Abstract

In this article we consider how the operator of an electric power system should activate bids on the regulating power market in order to minimize the expected operation cost. Important characteristics of the problem are reaction times of actors on the regulating market and ramp-rates for production changes in power plants. Neglecting these will in general lead to major underestimation of the operation cost. Including reaction times and ramp-rates leads to an impulse control problem with delayed reaction. Two numerical schemes to solve this problem are proposed. The first scheme is based on the least-squares Monte Carlo method developed by Longstaff and Schwartz (Rev Financ Stud 14:113–148, 2001 ). The second scheme which turns out to be more efficient when solving problems with delays, is based on the regression Monte Carlo method developed by Tsitsiklis and van Roy (IEEE Trans Autom Control 44(10):1840–1851, 1999 ) and (IEEE Trans Neural Netw 12(4):694–703, 2001 ). The main contribution of the article is the idea of using stochastic control to find an optimal strategy for power system operation and the numerical solution schemes proposed to solve impulse control problems with delayed reaction. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Perninge & Lennart Söder, 2014. "Irreversible investments with delayed reaction: an application to generation re-dispatch in power system operation," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(2), pages 195-224, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mathme:v:79:y:2014:i:2:p:195-224
    DOI: 10.1007/s00186-013-0459-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00186-013-0459-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00186-013-0459-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rene Carmona & Michael Ludkovski, 2008. "Pricing Asset Scheduling Flexibility using Optimal Switching," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 405-447.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Shi-Jie Deng & Zhendong Xia, 2006. "A Real Options Approach For Pricing Electricity Tolling Agreements," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 421-436.
    4. Said Hamadène & Monique Jeanblanc, 2007. "On the Starting and Stopping Problem: Application in Reversible Investments," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 182-192, February.
    5. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Leif Andersen & Mark Broadie, 2004. "Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1222-1234, September.
    7. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    8. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Sulem, Agnes & Zanello, Alessandro, 2002. "Time-to-build and capacity choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-98, January.
    9. Arnaud Porchet & Nizar Touzi & Xavier Warin, 2009. "Valuation of power plants by utility indifference and numerical computation," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 70(1), pages 47-75, August.
    10. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    11. Joanna Nowicka-Zagrajek & Rafal Weron, 2002. "Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise," HSC Research Reports HSC/02/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grimm, Veronika & Martin, Alexander & Weibelzahl, Martin & Zöttl, Gregor, 2014. "Transmission and Generation Investment in Electricity Markets: The Effects of Market Splitting and Network Fee Regimes," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 460, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    2. Grimm, Veronika & Martin, Alexander & Weibenzahl, Martin & Zoettl, Gregor, 2014. "Transmission and generation investment in electricity markets: The effects of market splitting and network fee regimes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Grimm, Veronika & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Weibelzahl, Martin & Zöttl, Gregor, 2016. "Transmission and generation investment in electricity markets: The effects of market splitting and network fee regimes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 493-509.
    4. Magnus Perninge, 2018. "A limited-feedback approximation scheme for optimal switching problems with execution delays," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 87(3), pages 347-382, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Naranjo, Lorenzo & Sainz, Felipe, 2021. "Optimal decision policy for real options under general Markovian dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(2), pages 634-647.
    2. Yi Yang & Jianan Wang & Youhua Chen & Zhiyuan Chen & Yanchu Liu, 2020. "Optimal procurement strategies for contractual assembly systems with fluctuating procurement price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 1027-1059, August.
    3. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    4. Bastian Felix & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, 2013. "Gas storage valuation under limited market liquidity: an application in Germany," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7-8), pages 715-733, September.
    5. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langren'e & Huy^en Pham, 2012. "A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation," Papers 1210.8175, arXiv.org.
    6. Magnus Perninge, 2018. "A limited-feedback approximation scheme for optimal switching problems with execution delays," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 87(3), pages 347-382, June.
    7. Arnaud Porchet & Nizar Touzi & Xavier Warin, 2009. "Valuation of power plants by utility indifference and numerical computation," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 70(1), pages 47-75, August.
    8. Juri Hinz & Tanya Tarnopolskaya & Jeremy Yee, 2020. "Efficient algorithms of pathwise dynamic programming for decision optimization in mining operations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 583-615, March.
    9. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené & Huyên Pham, 2012. "A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problems in high dimension," Working Papers hal-00747229, HAL.
    10. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    11. Fabian Dickmann & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2014. "Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo," Papers 1402.0243, arXiv.org.
    12. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    13. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    14. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.
    15. Abdullah Almansour and Margaret Insley, 2016. "The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    16. Zineb El Filali Ech-Chafiq & Pierre Henry-Labordere & Jérôme Lelong, 2021. "Pricing Bermudan options using regression trees/random forests," Working Papers hal-03436046, HAL.
    17. Denis Belomestny & Grigori Milstein & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2009. "Regression methods in pricing American and Bermudan options using consumption processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 315-327.
    18. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    19. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
    20. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:mathme:v:79:y:2014:i:2:p:195-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.