Of Trees and Monkeys. The evolution of technological specialization of European regions

The question about how regions develop and evolve along their productive and technological path is central in many scientific fields from international economics, to economic geography, from industrial economics to regional science. Within an evolutionary perspective, we believe that a region is most likely to develop new industries or new technologies, which are closer to its pre-existing specialization. Our research builds on an empirical stream of literature, started by Hausmann and Klinger (2007) and Hidalgo et al. (2007), aimed at tracing the evolution of industrial specialisation at the country level following the evolution of export portfolios. We refocus this line of analysis on the regional European technology/knowledge space along the research avenue started by Kogler et al. (2017). We aim at investigating the pattern and the evolution of regional specialisation in the EU in terms of the interaction of (i) endogenous processes of knowledge recombination and localised technological change, (ii) exogenous technological paradigm shifts and (iii) trans-regional spatial and technological spillovers and networking dynamics. More specifically, our paper maps the technological trajectories of 198 EU regions over the period 1986-2010 by using data on 121 patent sectors in the NUTS2 regions of the 11 most innovative EU countries, plus Switzerland and Norway. We map the knowledge space following two approaches: a micro level one, based on co-classification information contained in patent documents (Engelsman and Van Raan, 1992; Kogler et al., 2017), and a macro level, based on conditional co-specialisations of regions in the same patent classes (Hidalgo et al., 2007). These two representations of the knowledge space serve as a basis for understanding the evolution of regional technological specialization, measured in terms of the sector-region relative technological advantage (RTA), and for modelling its dynamics as a function of spatial, technological and socio-cognitive proximity. Preliminary results show that regional technological paths display a significant level of path dependence in, which the technological specialization is significantly shaped by both localised technological change and recombinant innovation. We also find evidence of local spillover spillovers induced by both geographic and technological proximity.