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The Impact of Coalition Offensive Operations on the Iraqi Insurgency

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew A. Hanson

    () (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

  • Martin B. Schmidt

    () (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

Abstract

Coalition offensive operations in Iraq seek to disrupt insurgents and their networks, but may also act as a recruitment tool for the insurgency. We use data from Coalition press releases and casualty reports to assess the total impact of these operations. We find that two additional offensive operations come at a future cost of an additional Coalition soldier’s life. The evidence suggests that rather than diminishing the insurgents’ appetite to wage counterattacks, these operations may act as a recruitment tool for the insurgency. We further find that while the insurgents change their level of operations in response to the Coalition, the Coalition does not react to the insurgents.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew A. Hanson & Martin B. Schmidt, 2007. "The Impact of Coalition Offensive Operations on the Iraqi Insurgency," Working Papers 56, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:56
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    File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp56.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Proactive Countermeasures; Iraq War; Terrorism; Vector Autoregression; Granger Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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