IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/2403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inefficiencies of Carbon Trading Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Borri

    (LUISS University)

  • Yukun Liu

    (University of Rochester)

  • Aleh Tsyvinski

    (Yale University)

  • Xi Wu

    (University of California - Berkeley)

Abstract

The European Union Emission Trading System is a prominent market-based mechanism to reduce emissions. While the theory is well- understood, we are the first to study the whole cap-and-trade mechanism as a financial market. Analyzing the universe of transactions in 2005-2020 (more than one million records of granular transaction data), we show that this market features significant inefficiencies undermining its goals. First, about 40% of firms never trade in a given ear. Second, many firms only trade during surrendering months, when compliance is immediate and prices are predictably high. Third, a number of operators engage in speculative trading, exploiting private information.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Borri & Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2024. "Inefficiencies of Carbon Trading Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2403, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2024-08/d2403.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "A Reason for Quantity Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 431-435, May.
    2. Martin L. Weitzman, 1974. "Prices vs. Quantities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(4), pages 477-491.
    3. Mark R Jacobsen & James M Sallee & Joseph S Shapiro & Arthur A van Benthem, 2023. "Regulating Untaxable Externalities: Are Vehicle Air Pollution Standards Effective and Efficient?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(3), pages 1907-1976.
    4. Montgomery, W. David, 1972. "Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 395-418, December.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    6. Meredith Fowlie & Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur, 2012. "What Do Emissions Markets Deliver and to Whom? Evidence from Southern California's NOx Trading Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 965-993, April.
    7. Lawrence H. Goulder, 2013. "Markets for Pollution Allowances: What Are the (New) Lessons?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 87-102, Winter.
    8. Richard Schmalensee & Robert N. Stavins, 2025. "The SO2 Allowance Trading System: The Ironic History of a Grand Policy Experiment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economics of Environment, Climate Change, and Wine Selected Papers of Robert N Stavins Volume 3 (2011–2023), chapter 8, pages 209-233, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    11. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1925 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Michael Grubb, 2012. "Cap and trade finds new energy," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7426), pages 666-667, November.
    13. Aleksandar Zaklan, 2023. "Coase and Cap-and-Trade: Evidence on the Independence Property from the European Carbon Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 526-558, May.
    14. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
    15. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    16. Meredith Fowlie & Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur, 2012. "What Do Emissions Markets Deliver and to Whom? Evidence from Southern California's NOx Trading Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 965-993, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chiappari, Mattia & Scotti, Francesco & Flori, Andrea, 2025. "Portfolio hedging through a novel equity index based on the verified emissions of EU ETS-regulated firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Schmalensee & Robert N. Stavins, 2025. "Lessons Learned from Three Decades of Experience with Cap and Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economics of Environment, Climate Change, and Wine Selected Papers of Robert N Stavins Volume 3 (2011–2023), chapter 9, pages 235-264, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Simon Quemin & Christian Perthuis, 2019. "Transitional Restricted Linkage Between Emissions Trading Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 1-32, September.
    3. Richard Schmalensee & Robert N. Stavins, 2025. "Policy Evolution under the Clean Air Act," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economics of Environment, Climate Change, and Wine Selected Papers of Robert N Stavins Volume 3 (2011–2023), chapter 10, pages 267-298, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Oskar Lecuyer & Philippe Quirion, 2019. "Interaction between CO2 emissions trading and renewable energy subsidies under uncertainty: feed-in tariffs as a safety net against over-allocation," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1002-1018, September.
    5. Jihad C. Elnaboulsi & Wassim Daher & Yiğit Sağlam, 2023. "Environmental taxation, information precision, and information sharing," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(2), pages 301-341, April.
    6. Robert N. Stavins, 2025. "The Future of US Carbon-Pricing Policy," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economics of Environment, Climate Change, and Wine Selected Papers of Robert N Stavins Volume 3 (2011–2023), chapter 11, pages 299-365, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    8. Daniel Leppert, 2023. "“No fences make bad neighbors” but markets make better ones: cap-and-trade reduces cross-border SO2 in a natural experiment," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 407-433, July.
    9. Holland, Stephen P. & Yates, Andrew J., 2015. "Optimal trading ratios for pollution permit markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 16-27.
    10. Danae Hernandez-Cortes & Kyle C. Meng, 2020. "Do Environmental Markets Cause Environmental Injustice? Evidence from California's Carbon Market," NBER Working Papers 27205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hernandez-Cortes, Danae & Meng, Kyle C., 2023. "Do environmental markets cause environmental injustice? Evidence from California’s carbon market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Taschini, Luca, 2021. "Flexibility premium of emissions permits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Meredith Fowlie & Nicholas Muller, 2019. "Market-Based Emissions Regulation When Damages Vary across Sources: What Are the Gains from Differentiation?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 593-632.
    14. Jonathan M. Lee, 2015. "The Impact of Heterogeneous NOx Regulations on Distributed Electricity Generation in U.S. Manufacturing," Working Papers 15-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Jonathan Colmer & Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Muûls & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2020. "Does pricing carbon mitigate climate change? Firm-level evidence from the European Union emissions trading scheme," CEP Discussion Papers dp1728, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2021. "Consistent inference for predictive regressions in persistent economic systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 215-244.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Peifang Yang & Daniel T. Kaffine, 2016. "Community-Based Tradable Permits for Localized Pollution," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(4), pages 773-788, December.
    19. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    20. Baudry, Marc & Faure, Anouk & Quemin, Simon, 2021. "Emissions trading with transaction costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    21. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.