IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crm/wpaper/26197.html

Collective Bargaining and the Wage Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Bernardo Fanfani

Abstract

We study how updates in pay floors set by collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) shape the wage structure in Italy. We estimate stacked event-panel difference-in-differences models around changes of contractual minima and trace distributional impacts. Pay-floor hikes of 2.2% on average raise mean log FTE daily wages by 2.2%, but effects are near zero at the 10th percentile and stronger at the 90th, implying inequality enhancing wage-rate responses. This asymmetry reflects both within-agreement heterogeneity, as lower-paid workers within CBAs respond less, and between-agreement heterogeneity, as low-wage CBAs exhibit weaker pass-through. Non-compliance with pay floors is higher in low-wage CBAs, thus it is a potential driver of asymmetries even if its level is not affected by wage updates. Pay-floor hikes reduce employment and days worked only among low-wage workers and only among full-time jobs, which may further contribute to the muted wage response in the lower tail through selection mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Cappellari & Bernardo Fanfani, 2026. "Collective Bargaining and the Wage Structure," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26197, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/26197.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Card & Jörg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Workplace Heterogeneity and the Rise of West German Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 967-1015.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11158 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2018. "The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs: evidence from the United States using a bunching estimator," CEP Discussion Papers dp1531, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Henry S Farber & Daniel Herbst & Ilyana Kuziemko & Suresh Naidu, 2021. "Unions and Inequality over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1325-1385.
    5. Manudeep Bhuller & Karl Ove Moene & Magne Mogstad & Ola L. Vestad, 2022. "Facts and Fantasies about Wage Setting and Collective Bargaining," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 29-52, Fall.
    6. Andrea Garnero, 2018. "The dog that barks doesn’t bite: coverage and compliance of sectoral minimum wages in Italy," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Denis Fougère & Erwan Gautier, 2013. "Wage Rigidity, Collective Bargaining, and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from French Agreement Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1337-1351, October.
    8. David H. Autor & Alan Manning & Christopher L. Smith, 2016. "The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 58-99, January.
    9. Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux & Neil Lloyd, 2021. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages: The Role of Spillover Effects," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 369-412.
    10. Francesco Devicienti & Bernardo Fanfani, 2025. "Firms' margins of adjustment to wage growth: the case of Italian collective bargaining," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 107-149, January.
    11. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2022. "Wage Flexibility under Sectoral Bargaining," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2013-2061.
    12. Card, David, 1996. "The Effect of Unions on the Structure of Wages: A Longitudinal Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 957-979, July.
    13. David S. Lee, 1999. "Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s: Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 977-1023.
    14. Francesco Devicienti & Bernardo Fanfani & Agata Maida, 2019. "Collective Bargaining and the Evolution of Wage Inequality in Italy," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 377-407, June.
    15. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2425, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    16. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    17. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Díez-Catalán, Luis & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2025. "Staggered contracts and unemployment during recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Mario Bossler & Thorsten Schank, 2023. "Wage Inequality in Germany after the Minimum Wage Introduction," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 813-857.
    19. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    21. Tito Boeri & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Moretti & Johanna Posch, 2021. "Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces [“Regional Wage Disparities and Migration.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3249-3292.
    22. Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence M, 1996. "International Differences in Male Wage Inequality: Institutions versus Market Forces," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 791-836, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brändle, Tobias, 2024. "Unions and Collective Bargaining: The Influence on Wages, Employment and Firm Survival," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1457, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Demir, Gökay, 2024. "Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 17510, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2425, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    5. Bernardo Fanfani, 2019. "The Employment Effects of Collective Bargaining," Working papers 064, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    6. Bustos, Emil, 2024. "Collectively Bargained Wages and Female Earnings: Evidence from Swedish Local Governments," Working Paper Series 1494, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2025. "Contractual Minimum Wages and Collective Bargaining: Italian Evidence from Forty Years of Data," IZA Discussion Papers 18051, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Lucía Ramírez Leira & Carlo Lombardo & Leonardo Gasparini, 2025. "Wage Floors Set in Collective Bargaining: Evidence on Wages and Employment in Argentina," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0353, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    9. Oliveira, Carlos, 2023. "The minimum wage and the wage distribution in Portugal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Francine D. Blau & Isaac Cohen & Matthew L. Comey & Lawrence Kahn & Nikolai Boboshko, 2023. "The Minimum Wage and Inequality Between Groups," NBER Working Papers 31725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pablo Blanchard & Paula Carrasco & Rodrigo Ceni & Cecilia Parada, 2026. "More Than a Floor: Analysing the Distributive and Employment Impacts of a Wage Policy," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 130-145, March.
    12. Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Disitribution: Bite, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality," GEE Papers 0160, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised May 2022.
    13. Demir, Gökay, 2023. "Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 16204, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Biewen, Martin & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Rümmele, Marian, 2022. "Using Distribution Regression Difference-in-Differences to Evaluate the Effects of a Minimum Wage Introduction on the Distribution of Hourly Wages and Hours Worked," IZA Discussion Papers 15534, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Dean Hyslop & David C. Maré & Lily Stelling, 2025. "Minimum wages and wage inequality in New Zealand," Motu Working Papers 25_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    16. Morlin, Guilherme Spinato & Stamegna, Marco & Cano Ortiz, David & D’Alessandro, Simone & Guarnieri, Pietro, 2026. "Tackling labor market inequalities through minimum and maximum wages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Oliveira, Carlos, 2021. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Distribution: Minimum Wage, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality in Portugal," MPRA Paper 112534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Demir, Gökay, 2022. "Labor market frictions and spillover effects from publicly announced sectoral minimum wages," Ruhr Economic Papers 985, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ernesto Villanueva, 2020. "Wage Determination and the Bite of Collective Contracts in Italy and Spain: Evidence From the Metalworking Industry," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_176, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    20. Moser, Christian, 2016. "How Could Wage Inequality Within and Across Enterprises be Reduced?," MPRA Paper 95381, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Moritz Lubczyk or Matthew Nibloe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.