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Growing into Trouble: Indonesia After 1966

  • Temple, Jonathan

This paper analyses the remarkable growth experience of Indonesia since 1966. Over a thirty-year period, GDP per capita rose more than fourfold, despite unfavourable initial conditions, some weak institutions, and flawed microeconomic policies. The paper attributes this strong performance to a mutually reinforcing combination of political stability, competent macroeconomic policy, and some important instances of good fortune. It explores the origins of good policy and analyses three of the main external shocks. The paper also argues that rapid growth interacted with weak institutions in a way that contributed to the severity of the crisis of 1997-98.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2932.

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Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2932
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  1. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-99, October.
  2. Ross H. McLeod, 1998. "From Crisis to Cataclysm? The Mismanagement of Indonesia's Economic Ailments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(7), pages 913-930, 09.
  3. Olson, Mancur, 1963. "Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 529-552, December.
  4. Jody Overland & Kenneth Simons & Michael Spagat, 2005. "Political instability and growth in dictatorships," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 445-470, December.
  5. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," NBER Working Papers 6350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eric Friedman & Simon Johnson & Peter Boone & Alasdair Breach, 1999. "Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 199920, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. Rabin, Matthew, 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4sw8n41t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. David Cole & Betty Slade, 1998. "Why Has Indonesia's Financial Crisis Been so Bad?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 61-66.
  9. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 303-354.
  11. Sadayuki Takii & Eric Ramstetter, 2007. "Survey Of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 295-322.
  12. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  13. Robertson, Peter E, 2000. "Diminished Returns? Growth and Investment in East Asia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 343-53, December.
  14. Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp0495, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  15. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. James A. Robinson, 1999. "When is a State Predatory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 178, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Martin, Will & Warr, Peter G, 1993. "Explaining the Relative Decline of Agriculture: A Supply-Side Analysis for Indonesia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(3), pages 381-401, September.
  18. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J, 1998. "Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution Vs. Trade Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Booth, Anne, 1999. "Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 301-321, February.
  20. Jonathan Temple & Paul A. Johnson, 1998. "Social Capability And Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 965-990, August.
  21. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  22. J. Vernon Henderson, Zmarak Shalizi, and Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Geography and development," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 81-105, January.
  23. Hal Hill, 2000. "Indonesia: The Strange and Sudden Death of a Tiger Economy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 117-139.
  24. Cassing, James H., 2000. "Economic policy and political culture in Indonesia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 159-171, March.
  25. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
  26. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521663670 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich," NBER Working Papers 4964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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