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Growing into Trouble: Indonesia After 1966

  • Temple, Jonathan

This paper analyses the remarkable growth experience of Indonesia since 1966. Over a thirty-year period, GDP per capita rose more than fourfold, despite unfavourable initial conditions, some weak institutions, and flawed microeconomic policies. The paper attributes this strong performance to a mutually reinforcing combination of political stability, competent macroeconomic policy, and some important instances of good fortune. It explores the origins of good policy and analyses three of the main external shocks. The paper also argues that rapid growth interacted with weak institutions in a way that contributed to the severity of the crisis of 1997-98.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2932.

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Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2932
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  1. Hal Hill, 1999. "Indonesia : The Strange and Sudden Death of a Tiger Economy," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 199913, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
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  7. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
  8. Jody Overland, Kenneth Simons and Michael Spagat, 2003. "Political Instability and Growth in Dictatorships," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 03/11, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Dec 2003.
  9. Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich," NBER Working Papers 4964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. James A. Robinson, 1999. "When is a State Predatory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 178, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Booth, Anne, 1999. "Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 301-321, February.
  21. Sadayuki Takii & Eric Ramstetter, 2007. "Survey Of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 295-322.
  22. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  23. Cassing, James H., 2000. "Economic policy and political culture in Indonesia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 159-171, March.
  24. Martin, Will & Warr, Peter G, 1993. "Explaining the Relative Decline of Agriculture: A Supply-Side Analysis for Indonesia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(3), pages 381-401, September.
  25. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J, 1998. "Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution Vs. Trade Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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