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Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis


  • Andrle, Michal


The paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data and (ii) impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic models. For instance, decomposition of output gap to output, inflation, interest rates and other observables contribution is feasible. The intuitive nature and the analytical clarity of procedures suggested are appealing for policy-related and forecasting models. The paper brings some of the power embodied in the theory of linear multivariate filters, namely relatinship between Kalman and Wiener-Kolmogorov filtering, into the area of structural multivariate models, expressed in linear state-space form.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrle, Michal, 2012. "Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis," Dynare Working Papers 16, CEPREMAP.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:016

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jaromír Beneš & Andrew Binning & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "Incorporating judgement with DSGE models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Pierce, David A., 1980. "Data revisions with moving average seasonal adjustment procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-114, September.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    4. Doran, Howard E, 1992. "Constraining Kalman Filter and Smoothing Estimates to Satisfy Time-Varying Restrictions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 568-572, August.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter," IMF Working Papers 10/285, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    7. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Michal Andrle & Haris Munandar & Charles Freedman & Danny Hermawan, 2009. "Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/253, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Sander, 2013. "Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item


    filter; DSGE; state-space; observables decomposition; judgement;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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