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Four futures for energy markets and climate change


  • Johannes Bollen


  • Machiel Mulder


  • T. Manders


Future developments in energy and climate are highly uncertain. In order to deal with these uncertainties, we developed four long-term scenarios based on the recently published economic scenarios Four Futures of Europe: STRONG EUROPE, GLOBAL ECONOMY, TRANSATLANTIC MARKET and REGIONAL COMMUNITIES. In this study, we explore the next four decades. Although the report focuses on Europe, global aspects of energy use and climate change play a significant role. The next decades, global reserves of oil and natural gas will likely be sufficient to meet the growing demand. Therefore, there is no need to worry about a looming depletion of natural energy resources. The use of fossil energy carriers will, however, affect climate because of the emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to mitigate global increases of temperature, emissions of greenhouse gasses should be reduced. Developing countries should contribute to that effort. On the one hand they will be major emitters in the near future, on the other hand they have the low-cost abatement options.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Bollen & Machiel Mulder & T. Manders, 2004. "Four futures for energy markets and climate change," CPB Special Publication 52, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:spcial:52

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lynch, Michael C., 2002. "Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 373-389.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bollen, Johannes & Brink, Corjan, 2014. "Air pollution policy in Europe: Quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-215.
    2. Christian Dreger & Manuel Artís & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 272, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Andries Hof & Michel Elzen & Detlef Vuuren, 2009. "Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented versus universal regimes: what can we learn from model studies?," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 39-62, February.
    4. F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170.
    5. Peter Verburg & Bas Eickhout & Hans Meijl, 2008. "A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 57-77, March.
    6. Stefan Boeters & Ton Manders & Gerard Verweij & M.G.J. den Elzen & Veenendaal. P.J.J., 2007. "Post-2012 climate policy scenarios," CPB Special Publication 70, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Government involvement in liberalised gas markets; a welfare-economic analysis of Dutch gas-depletion policy," CPB Document 110, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Willemien Kets & Gerard Verweij, 2005. "Non-C02 greenhouse gases; all gases count," CPB Discussion Paper 44, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Douwe Kingma & Wim Suyker, 2004. "FAQs about oil and the world economy," CPB Memorandum 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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