Market access for non-agricultural products: The impact of the Doha Round on African economies: A simulation exercise

This paper proposes an extensive data simulation exercise on the likely impact of the non agricultural market access liberalisation. We propose real options for various formula coefficients, paragraph 8 flexibilities and the treatment of unbound tariffs. Furthermore, we propose an empirical work, by putting together a combination of databases and a methodology allowing to assess systematically and exhaustively, for African countries suspected to apply tariff formula reduction on NAMA negotiations and for each of the sixdigit level lines of the Harmonised System classification (hereafter, HS-6 level), the AVE of the binding overhang, and the impact on applied duties of any cut in bound protection. This paper proposes also some indications concerning the likely economic impact of this round on African economies. We show that an ambitious formula would provide greater access to the developed countries’ markets for African producers. However, this kind of formula has an important inconvenient for African countries in the sense that it could accelerate the desindustrialisation of African countries and limit the incentives to diversify their economies.