On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances
In this paper I analyze the nature of external adjustments in current account surplus countries. I ask whether a realignment of world growth rates -- with Japan and Europe growing faster, and the U.S. growing more slowly -- is likely to solve the current situation of global imbalances. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) there is an important asymmetry between current account deficits and surpluses. (b) Large surpluses exhibit little persistence through time. (c) Large and abrupt reductions in surpluses are a rare phenomenon. (d) A decline in GDP growth, relative to long term trend, of 1 percentage point results in an improvement in the current account balance -- higher surplus or lower deficit -- of one quarter of a percentage point of GDP. Taken together, these results indicate that a realignment of global growth would only make a modest contribution towards the resolution of global imbalances. This means that, even if there is a realignment of global growth, the world is likely to need significant exchange rate movements. This analysis also suggests that a reduction in China's (very) large surplus will be needed if global imbalances are to be resolved.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eichengreen, Barry, 2003. "Three generations of crises, three generations of crisis models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1089-1094, December.
- Kraay, A. & Ventura, J., 1997.
"Current Acounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries,"
97-12, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000.
"Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration,"
IMF Working Papers
00/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1995.
"Saving behavior in low- and middle-income developing countries,"
13757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999.
"What Drives Private Saving Across the World?,"
47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Aizenman, Joshua, 1983.
"A theory of current account and exchange rate determinations,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 261-280, September.
- Joshua Aizenman, 1983. "A Theory of Current Account and Exchange Rate Determinations," NBER Working Papers 1177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003.
"The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
- James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: round up the usual suspects," International Finance Discussion Papers 760, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James M. Nason and John H. Rogers, 2001. "The Present Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Subjects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 102, Society for Computational Economics.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Jacques Miniane & BenoÃ®t Mercereau, 2004. "Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 04/106, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.