IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/757.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Bhatiya, Apurav

    (University of Birmingham, CAGE, JPAL)

  • Kadam, Shanta

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

This paper examines how highly visible irregular migration influences immigration attitudes. Using high-frequency data on small boat crossings from 2018 to 2024 linked with British Election Study panel data, we exploit variation in survey timing to identify short-term effects. Recent arrivals reduce support for immigration, especially among right-leaning media consumers. Left-leaning media can offset these effects, but only among respondents with low baseline concern. Perceived increases in immigration reinforce these patterns, consistent with confirmation bias. Small but salient events can disproportionately shape public sentiment through media framing and prior beliefs, helping explain recent policy tightening, even toward legal migration routes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhatiya, Apurav & Kadam, Shanta, 2025. "Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 757, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp757.2025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borjas, George J., 2017. "The labor supply of undocumented immigrants," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Gathmann, Christina, 2008. "Effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from migrant smuggling along the southwestern border," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 1926-1941, October.
    3. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Giacomo Battiston, 2022. "Rescue on Stage: Border Enforcement and Public Attention in the Mediterranean Sea," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0292, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    5. Kovak, Brian K. & Lessem, Rebecca, 2020. "How do U.S. visa policies affect unauthorized immigration?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 92-108.
    6. Rozo, Sandra V. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Brothers or invaders? How crisis-driven migrants shape voting behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski & Jérôme Valette, 2025. "Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 337-368, January.
    8. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Rebecca Lessem, 2018. "Mexico–U.S. Immigration: Effects of Wages and Border Enforcement," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2353-2388.
    10. Dylong, Patrick & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Biased beliefs about immigration and economic concerns: Evidence from representative experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 453-482.
    11. Alexis Grigorieff & Christopher Roth & Diego Ubfal, 2020. "Does Information Change Attitudes Toward Immigrants?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1117-1143, June.
    12. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Benesch, Christine & Loretz, Simon & Stadelmann, David & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Media coverage and immigration worries: Econometric evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 52-67.
    14. Lebow, Jeremy & Moreno-Medina, Jonathan & Mousa, Salma & Coral, Horacio, 2024. "Migrant exposure and anti-migrant sentiment: The case of the Venezuelan exodus," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    15. Bansak, Kirk & Hainmueller, Jens & Hangartner, Dominik, 2016. "How economic, humanitarian, and religious concerns shape European attitudes toward asylum seekers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67898, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Robert Warren & Jeffrey Passel, 1987. "A Count of the Uncountable: Estimates of Undocumented Aliens Counted in the 1980 United States Census," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(3), pages 375-393, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schuettler,Kirsten & Do,Quy-Toan, 2023. "Outcomes for Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees in Low and Middle-Income Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10278, The World Bank.
    2. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Giacomo Battiston, 2022. "Rescue on Stage: Border Enforcement and Public Attention in the Mediterranean Sea," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0292, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    5. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Poutvaara, Panu & Schikora, Felicitas, 2023. "First time around: Local conditions and multi-dimensional integration of refugees," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Weisser, Reinhard A., 2024. "Shots, sympathy, and societal support: How conflict intensity translates into cooperative behaviour towards the displaced," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Bossavie, Laurent & Görlach, Joseph-Simon & Özden, Çaglar & Wang, He, 2025. "Temporary migration for long-term investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. repec:osf:socarx:nsr8q_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Leng, Alyssa Amanda & Edwards, Ryan Barclay & Wood, Terence, 2025. "Narratives, immigration and immigration policy preferences," SocArXiv c63uq_v1, Center for Open Science.
    10. Manzoni, Elena & Murard, Elie & Quercia, Simone & Tonini, Sara, 2024. "News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 17017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Sara Giunti & Andrea Guariso & Mariapia Mendola & Irene Solmone, 2024. "Hacking Anti-Immigration Attitudes and Stereotypes: A Field Experiment in Italian High Schools," Development Working Papers 499, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    12. Giunti, Sara & Guariso, Andrea & Mendola, Mariapia & Solmone, Irene, 2025. "Hacking Anti-Immigration Attitudes and Stereotypes: A Field Experiment in Italian High Schools," IZA Discussion Papers 17978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Cattaneo, Cristina & Grieco, Daniela, 2021. "Turning opposition into support to immigration: The role of narratives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 785-801.
    14. Lergetporer, Philipp & Piopiunik, Marc & Simon, Lisa, 2021. "Does the education level of refugees affect natives’ attitudes?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Fazio, Andrea & Giaccherini, Matilde, 2025. "Weight, Stigma, and Attitudes toward Immigrants," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1470 [rev.], Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Betts, Alexander & Flinder Stierna, Maria & Omata, Naohiko & Sterck, Olivier, 2023. "Refugees welcome? Inter-group interaction and host community attitude formation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    17. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    18. Betts,Alexander Milton Stedman & Stierna,Maria Flinder & Omata,Naohiko & Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte, 2022. "Social Cohesion and Refugee-Host Interactions : Evidence from East Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9917, The World Bank.
    19. Borjas, George J. & Cassidy, Hugh, 2019. "The wage penalty to undocumented immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    20. Sekou Keita & Thomas Renault & Jérôme Valette, 2024. "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 322-362.
    21. Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 205-243.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.