IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12470.html

Lessons on State and Local Income Taxes from the Twenty-first Century and Challenges for the Future

Author

Listed:
  • David R. Agrawal

Abstract

I survey the research on the last twenty-five years of subnational income tax policy and conclude that the defining feature of state and local income taxes is geography. Geographic boundaries limit the power of subnational governments to tax people and activities. The article discusses where income should be taxed and the behavioral effects of these tax rules on the interjurisdictional mobility of people and jobs. I then examine how this mobility can heighten tax competition, which in turn can limit the ability of state and local governments to engage in progressive redistribution. I include a discussion of how telework will influence the future of the income tax by decoupling the locations of the employee and employer. Important areas for future research for the coming decades are highlighted throughout the article.

Suggested Citation

  • David R. Agrawal, 2026. "Lessons on State and Local Income Taxes from the Twenty-first Century and Challenges for the Future," CESifo Working Paper Series 12470, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12470.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margaret E. Brehm & Olga Malkova, 2023. "The Child Tax Credit over Time by Family Type: Benefit Eligibility and Poverty," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 707-741.
    2. Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2020. "The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    3. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Mathilde Muñoz & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    4. Agrawal, David R. & Stark, Kirk J., 2022. "Will the Remote Work Revolution Undermine Progressive State Income Taxes?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1119, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Wildasin, David E., 1980. "Locational efficiency in a federal system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 453-471, November.
    6. Federico Revelli & Tsung-Sheng Tsai & Roberto Zotti, 2021. "Fiscal Externalities in Multilevel Tax Structures: Evidence from Concurrent Income Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9276, CESifo.
    7. Andrew Haughwout & Robert Inman & Steven Craig & Thomas Luce, 2004. "Local Revenue Hills: Evidence from Four U.S. Cities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 570-585, May.
    8. Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2014. "Identifying local tax mimicking with administrative borders and a policy reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 41-51.
    9. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    10. David R. Agrawal & Kenneth Tester, 2024. "State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 447-481, February.
    11. Cailin R. Slattery & Owen M. Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives," NBER Working Papers 26603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Suárez Serrato, Juan Carlos & Zidar, Owen, 2018. "The structure of state corporate taxation and its impact on state tax revenues and economic activity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 158-176.
    13. WILDASIN, David, 1987. "The demand for public goods in the presence of tax exporting," LIDAM Reprints CORE 802, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Timothy J. Bartik, 2019. "Making Sense of Incentives: Taming Business Incentives to Promote Prosperity," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number msi.
    15. Epple, Dennis & Romer, Thomas, 1991. "Mobility and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 828-858, August.
    16. Rohlin, Shawn & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Ross, Amanda, 2014. "Tax avoidance and business location in a state border model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-49.
    17. Marius Brülhart & Jonathan Gruber & Matthias Krapf & Kurt Schmidheiny, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Switzerland," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 111-150, November.
    18. Daniel Feenberg & Elisabeth Coutts, 1993. "An introduction to the TAXSIM model," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 189-194.
    19. Valeria Merlo & Andreas Schanbacher & Georg U. Thunecke & Georg Wamser, 2023. "Identifying Tax-Setting Responses From Local Fiscal Policy Programs," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2023-23, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    20. Jonathan C. Rork & Gary A. Wagner, 2012. "Is There a Connection Between Reciprocity and Tax Competition?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 40(1), pages 86-115, January.
    21. Ugo Troiano, 2017. "Cooperative Federalism: The Consequences of the Audit Information Exchange Agreements," NBER Working Papers 24153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Valeria Merlo & Andreas Schanbacher & Georg U. Thunecke & Georg Wamser, 2023. "Identifying Tax-Setting Responses from Local Fiscal Policy Programs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10473, CESifo.
    23. Raphaël Parchet, 2019. "Are Local Tax Rates Strategic Complements or Strategic Substitutes?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 189-224, May.
    24. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    25. Slemrod, Joel, 2010. "Location, (Real) Location, (Tax) Location: An Essay on Mobility’s Place in Optimal Taxation," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(4), pages 843-864, December.
    26. David R. Agrawal & Dirk Foremny & Clara Martínez-Toledano, 2025. "Wealth Tax Mobility and Tax Coordination," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 402-430, January.
    27. Buettner, Thiess & Poehnlein, Maximilian, 2024. "Tax competition effects of a minimum tax rate: Empirical evidence from German municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    28. Janeba, Eckhard & Peters, Wolfgang, 1999. "Tax Evasion, Tax Competition and the Gains from Nondiscrimination: The Case of Interest Taxation in Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 93-101, January.
    29. David Neumark & Katherine E. Williams, 2020. "Do State Earned Income Tax Credits Increase Participation in the Federal EITC?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(5), pages 579-626, September.
    30. Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2021. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 399-416, December.
    31. Fox, William F. & Hargaden, Enda Patrick & Luna, LeAnn, 2022. "Statutory incidence and sales tax compliance: Evidence from Wayfair," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    32. Jan K. Brueckner & Matthew E. Kahn & Gary C. Lin, 2023. "A New Spatial Hedonic Equilibrium in the Emerging Work-from-Home Economy?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 285-319, April.
    33. Esteller-More, Alex & Sole-Olle, Albert, 2001. "Vertical income tax externalities and fiscal interdependence: evidence from the US," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2-3), pages 247-272, April.
    34. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 2001. "Using the EITC to Help Poor Families: New Evidence and a Comparison With the Minimum Wage," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 54(2), pages 281-318, June.
    35. Marius Brülhart & Mario Jametti & Kurt Schmidheiny, 2012. "Do agglomeration economies reduce the sensitivity of firm location to tax differentials?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(563), pages 1069-1093, September.
    36. Feldstein, Martin & Wrobel, Marian Vaillant, 1998. "Can state taxes redistribute income?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 369-396, June.
    37. Peter H. Egger & Sergey Nigai & Nora M. Strecker, 2019. "The Taxing Deed of Globalization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 353-390, February.
    38. David R. Agrawal & William H. Hoyt & John D. Wilson, 2022. "Local Policy Choice: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1378-1455, December.
    39. Kleven, Henrik, 2024. "The EITC and the extensive margin: A reappraisal," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    40. Pauly, Mark V., 1973. "Income redistribution as a local public good," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 35-58, February.
    41. Michael Keen, 1998. "Vertical Tax Externalities in the Theory of Fiscal Federalism," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 454-485, September.
    42. Wagner, Gary A. & Rork, Jonathan C., 2023. "Does state tax reciprocity affect interstate commuting? Evidence from a natural experiment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    43. Kawika Pierson & Michael L Hand & Fred Thompson, 2015. "The Government Finance Database: A Common Resource for Quantitative Research in Public Financial Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    44. Joshua Rauh & Ryan Shyu, 2024. "Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 34-86, February.
    45. Austin J. Drukker, 2025. "Internal migration and the effective price of state and local taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 163-194, February.
    46. Michael J. Keen & Christos Kotsogiannis, 2002. "Does Federalism Lead to Excessively High Taxes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 363-370, March.
    47. Cailin Slattery & Owen Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Incentives," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 90-118, Spring.
    48. Schmidheiny, Kurt & Slotwinski, Michaela, 2018. "Tax-induced mobility: Evidence from a foreigners' tax scheme in Switzerland," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 293-324.
    49. Reagan Baughman & Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2009. "The earned income tax credit and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 537-563, July.
    50. Coomes, Paul A. & Hoyt, William H., 2008. "Income taxes and the destination of movers to multistate MSAs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 920-937, May.
    51. David R. Agrawal & Dirk Foremny, 2019. "Relocation of the Rich: Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 214-232, May.
    52. Kevin Milligan & Michael Smart, 2019. "An Estimable Model of Income Redistribution in a Federation: Musgrave Meets Oates," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 406-434, February.
    53. Young, Cristobal & Varner, Charles, 2011. "Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes: Evidence From a Natural Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 255-283, June.
    54. Moretti, Enrico & Wilson, Daniel J., 2014. "State incentives for innovation, star scientists and jobs: Evidence from biotech," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-38.
    55. Agrawal, David R. & Brueckner, Jan K., 2025. "Taxes and telework: The impacts of state income taxes in a work-from-home economy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    56. Kim, Donghyuk, 2023. "Economic spillovers and political payoffs in government competition for firms: Evidence from the Kansas City Border War," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    57. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    58. Gordon, Roger H & Wilson, John Douglas, 1986. "An Examination of Multijurisdictional Corporate Income Taxation under Formula Apportionment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1357-1373, November.
    59. Paul R. Organ, 2024. "Citizenship and taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(2), pages 404-453, April.
    60. Cailin Slattery, 2025. "Bidding for Firms: Subsidy Competition in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(8), pages 2563-2614.
    61. Ferrari, Alessandro & Ossa, Ralph, 2023. "A quantitative analysis of subsidy competition in the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    62. Andrey Yushkov, 2025. "Local Income Taxes and County-Level Migration: New Evidence From Indiana and Maryland," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1017-1036.
    63. Martínez, Isabel Z., 2022. "Mobility responses to the establishment of a residential tax haven: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    64. Jacob Bastian & Katherine Michelmore, 2018. "The Long-Term Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Children’s Education and Employment Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 1127-1163.
    65. Gordon, Roger H. & Cullen, Julie Berry, 2012. "Income redistribution in a Federal system of governments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1100-1109.
    66. William H. Hoyt, 2017. "The assignment and division of the tax base in a system of hierarchical governments," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 678-704, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agrawal, David R. & Brueckner, Jan K., 2025. "Taxes and telework: The impacts of state income taxes in a work-from-home economy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Enrico Rubolino & Tommaso Giommoni, 2023. "Taxation and Mobility: Evidence from Tax Decentralization in Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10655, CESifo.
    3. David R. Agrawal & Xinyu Chen, 2026. "State and Local Tax Policy in a Time of Telework," CESifo Working Paper Series 12422, CESifo.
    4. Lawrence M. Kessler & Donald Bruce, 2024. "A SALT on real estate? Housing market and migration responses to the limit on the state and local tax deduction," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 683-704, October.
    5. Marko Köthenbürger & Costanza Naguib & Christian Stettler & Michael Stimmelmayr, 2023. "Income Taxes and the Mobility of the Rich: Evidence from US and UK Households in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 10376, CESifo.
    6. Marius Brülhart & Jayson Danton & Raphaël Parchet & Jörg Schläpfer, 2025. "Who Bears the Burden of Local Taxes?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 464-505, February.
    7. David R. Agrawal & Kenneth Tester, 2024. "State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 447-481, February.
    8. Martínez, Isabel Z., 2022. "Mobility responses to the establishment of a residential tax haven: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Agrawal David R. & Foremny Dirk, 2022. "Redistribution In A Globalized World," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(5-6), pages 551-567, December.
    10. Colas, Mark & Saulnier, Emmett, 2023. "Vertical migration externalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. David R. Agrawal & Aline Bütikofer, 2022. "Public finance in the era of the COVID-19 crisis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1349-1372, December.
    12. Martinez, Isabel Z., 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Tax Cuts: Mobility after a Local Income and Wealth Tax Reform in Switzerland," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145643, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Joshua Rauh & Ryan Shyu, 2024. "Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 34-86, February.
    14. Adam M. Lavecchia & Robert McKercher & Alisa Tazhitdinova, 2026. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Impact of Taxation on Canadian Inter-Provincial Migration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2026-03, McMaster University.
    15. repec:hpe:journl:y:2025:v:253:i:2:p:91-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Giertz, Seth H. & Ramezani, Rasoul, 2018. "Taxes, Wage Capitalization and the Ability of States to Redistribute Income," GLO Discussion Paper Series 291, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Adam M. Lavecchia & Robert McKercher & Alisa Tazhitdinova, 2026. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Impact of Taxation on Canadian Inter-Provincial Migration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2026-03, McMaster University.
    18. Agrawal, David R., 2016. "Local fiscal competition: An application to sales taxation with multiple federations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 122-138.
    19. Lisa Marie Timm & Massimo Giuliodori & Paul Muller, 2025. "Tax Incentives for Migrants with Mid-level Earnings: Evidence from the Netherlands," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 42-79, July.
    20. Advani, Arun & Burgherr, David & Summers, Andy, "undated". "Taxation and Migration by the Super-Rich," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 630, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    21. Calabrese, Stephen & Epple, Dennis & Romano, Richard, 2023. "Majority choice of taxation and redistribution in a federation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.