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The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ole Agersnap

    (Princeton University)

  • Owen Zidar

    (Princeton University, NBER)

Abstract

This paper uses a direct-projections approach to estimate the effect of capital gains taxation on realizations at the state level, and then develops a framework for determining revenue-maximizing rates at the federal level. We find that the elasticity of revenues with respect to the tax rate over a ten-year period is-0.5 to -0.3, indicating that capital gains tax cuts do not pay for themselves, and that a 5 percentage point rate increase would yield$18 to$30 billion in annual federal tax revenue. Our long-run estimates yield revenue-maximizing capital gains tax rates of 38 to 47 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2020. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," Working Papers 272, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lavecchia, Adam M. & Tazhitdinova, Alisa, 2021. "Permanent and Transitory Responses to Capital Gains Taxes: Evidence from a Lifetime Exemption in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 14331, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-33.
    3. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. Marius A. K. Ring & Thor Olav Thoresen, 2022. "Wealth Taxation and Charitable Giving," CESifo Working Paper Series 9700, CESifo.
    5. Antoine Ferey & Benjamin Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2021. "Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 29582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David R. Agrawal & Kenneth Tester, 2024. "State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 447-481, February.
    7. Lora Dimitrova & Sapnoti K Eswar, 2023. "Capital Gains Tax, Venture Capital, and Innovation in Start-Ups," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1471-1519.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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