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Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Natasha Sarin

    (US Treasury Department)

  • Lawrence Summers

    (Harvard University, NBER)

  • Owen Zidar

    (Princeton University, NBER)

  • Eric Zwick

    (University of Chicago Booth, NBER)

Abstract

We argue the revenue potential from increasing tax rates on capital gains may be substantially greater than previously understood. First, many prior studies focus primarily on short-run taxpayer responses, and so miss revenue from gains that are deferred when rates change. Second, the rise of pass-throughs and index funds has shifted the composition of capital gains in recent years, such that the share of gains that are highly elastic to the tax rate has likely declined. If some components are less elastic, then their elasticity should get more weight when scoring big changes because they will comprise more of the remaining tax base. Third, closer parity to income rates would provide a backstop to rest of tax system. Fourth, additional base-broadening reforms, like eliminating stepped-up basis, making charitable giving a realization event, reforming donor advised funds, and limiting opportunity zones to places with the highest poverty rates, will decrease the elasticity of the tax base to rate changes. Overall, we do not think the prevailing assumption of many in the scorekeeping community—that raising rates to top ordinary income levels would raise little revenue—is warranted. A crude calculation illustrates that raising capital gains rates to ordinary income levels could raise hundreds of billions more revenue over a decade than other leading estimates suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Working Papers 298, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:298
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," Working Papers 264, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Auten, Gerald E. & Burman, Leonard E. & Randolph, William C., 1989. "Estimation and Interpretation of Capital Gains Realization Behavior: Evidence From Panel Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 42(3), pages 353-374, September.
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    4. Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2021. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 399-416, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lora Dimitrova & Sapnoti K Eswar, 2023. "Capital Gains Tax, Venture Capital, and Innovation in Start-Ups," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1471-1519.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital gains; taxes; tax reform; tax rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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