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The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates

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  • Ole Agersnap
  • Owen Zidar

Abstract

This paper uses a direct-projections approach to estimate the effect of capital gains taxation on realizations at the state level and then develops a framework for determining revenue-maximizing rates at the federal level. We find that the elasticity of revenues with respect to the tax rate over a 10-year period is –0.5 to –0.3, indicating that capital gains tax cuts do not pay for themselves and that a 5 percentage point rate increase would yield $18 to $30 billion in annual federal tax revenue. Our long-run estimates yield revenue-maximizing capital gains tax rates of 38 to 47 percent.

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  • Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2021. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 399-416, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:3:y:2021:i:4:p:399-416
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200535
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    Cited by:

    1. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-33.
    2. Marius A. K. Ring & Thor Olav Thoresen, 2022. "Wealth Taxation and Charitable Giving," CESifo Working Paper Series 9700, CESifo.
    3. Lora Dimitrova & Sapnoti K Eswar, 2023. "Capital Gains Tax, Venture Capital, and Innovation in Start-Ups," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1471-1519.
    4. Antoine Ferey & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2024. "Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(10), pages 3206-3249, October.
    5. Adam M. Lavecchia & Alisa Tazhitdinova, 2021. "Permanent and Transitory Responses to Capital Gains Taxes: Evidence from a Lifetime Exemption in Canada," NBER Working Papers 28514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David R. Agrawal & Kenneth Tester, 2024. "State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 447-481, February.
    7. Luke Petach, 2024. "Natural amenities and Neo-Hobbesian local public finance," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    9. Shahar Rotberg & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Tax Evasion and Capital Taxation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(7), pages 2488-2529.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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