IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27705.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ole Agersnap
  • Owen M. Zidar

Abstract

This paper uses a direct-projections approach to estimate the effect of capital gains taxation on realizations at the state level, and then develops a framework for determining revenue-maximizing rates at the federal level. We find that the elasticity of revenues with respect to the tax rate over a ten-year period is -0.5 to -0.3, indicating that capital gains tax cuts do not pay for themselves, and that a 5 percentage point rate increase would yield $18 to $30 billion in annual federal tax revenue. Our long-run estimates yield revenue-maximizing capital gains tax rates of 38 to 47 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole Agersnap & Owen M. Zidar, 2020. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," NBER Working Papers 27705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27705
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27705.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philipp Doerrenberg & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2017. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income in the Presence of Deduction Possibilities," NBER Chapters, in: Personal Income Taxation and Household Behavior (TAPES), National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Buhlmann, Florian & Doerrenberg, Philipp & Voget, Johannes & Loos, Benjamin, 2020. "How do taxes affect the trading behavior of private investors? Evidence from individual portfolio data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Matthew Smith & Owen M. Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2021. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," NBER Working Papers 29374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    5. Tim Dowd & Robert McClelland, 2019. "The Bunching of Capital Gains Realizations," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 72(2), pages 323-358, June.
    6. Cailin Slattery & Owen Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Incentives," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 90-118, Spring.
    7. Bogart, William T & Gentry, William M, 1995. "Capital Gains Taxes and Realizations: Evidence from Interstate Comparisons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 267-282, May.
    8. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    9. Emmanuel Saez, 2001. "Using Elasticities to Derive Optimal Income Tax Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(1), pages 205-229.
    10. Burman, Leonard E & Randolph, William C, 1994. "Measuring Permanent Responses to Capital-Gains Tax Changes in Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 794-809, September.
    11. Tim Dowd & Robert McClelland & Athiphat Muthitacharoen, 2015. "New Evidence on the Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(3), pages 511-544, September.
    12. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    13. Peter Diamond & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 165-190, Fall.
    14. Martin Feldstein & Joel Slemrod & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1980. "The Effects of Taxation on the Selling of Corporate Stock and the Realization of Capital Gains," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(4), pages 777-791.
    15. Cailin Slattery & Owen Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives," Working Papers 261, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    16. Gerald E. Auten & Joseph J. Cordes, 1991. "Policy Watch: Cutting Capital Gains Taxes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 181-192, Winter.
    17. Jonathan M. Siegel & Alan J. Auerbach, 2000. "Capital-Gains Realizations of the Rich and Sophisticated," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 276-282, May.
    18. Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," Working Papers 264, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    19. Facundo Alvaredo & Lucas Chancel & Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts," Post-Print halshs-03342488, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-33.
    2. Krapf, Matthias & Staubli, David, 2025. "Regional variations in corporate tax responsiveness: Evidence from Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Luke Petach, 2024. "Natural amenities and Neo-Hobbesian local public finance," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, March.
    4. David R. Agrawal & Dirk Foremny & Clara Martínez-Toledano, 2025. "Wealth Tax Mobility and Tax Coordination," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 402-430, January.
    5. Lavecchia, Adam M. & Tazhitdinova, Alisa, 2021. "Permanent and Transitory Responses to Capital Gains Taxes: Evidence from a Lifetime Exemption in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 14331, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Hines, James R. & Schaffa, Daniel, 2024. "Capital gains realizations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    7. Lora Dimitrova & Sapnoti K Eswar, 2023. "Capital Gains Tax, Venture Capital, and Innovation in Start-Ups," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1471-1519.
    8. Antoine Ferey & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2024. "Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(10), pages 3206-3249, October.
    9. David R. Agrawal & Kenneth Tester, 2024. "State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 447-481, February.
    10. Shahar Rotberg & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Tax Evasion and Capital Taxation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(7), pages 2488-2529.
    11. Marius A. K. Ring & Thor Olav Thoresen, 2022. "Wealth Taxation and Charitable Giving," CESifo Working Paper Series 9700, CESifo.
    12. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lavecchia, Adam M. & Tazhitdinova, Alisa, 2021. "Permanent and Transitory Responses to Capital Gains Taxes: Evidence from a Lifetime Exemption in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 14331, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Benjamin B. Lockwood & Afras Sial & Matthew Weinzierl, 2021. "Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-54.
    3. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Working Papers 298, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Michaël Sicsic, 2022. "Does labour income react more to income tax or means‐tested benefits reforms?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 291-319, September.
    5. Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith, 2024. "Optimal Sin Taxation and Market Power," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 34-70, October.
    6. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-33.
    7. Hines, James R. & Schaffa, Daniel, 2024. "Capital gains realizations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    8. Buhlmann, Florian & Doerrenberg, Philipp & Voget, Johannes & Loos, Benjamin, 2020. "How do taxes affect the trading behavior of private investors? Evidence from individual portfolio data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Dynamic Taxation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 801-831, August.
    10. Saez, Emmanuel & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2018. "A simpler theory of optimal capital taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 120-142.
    11. Hunt Allcott & Benjamin B Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2019. "Regressive Sin Taxes, with an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1557-1626.
    12. Wojciech Kopczuk & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Business Incomes at the Top," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 27-51, Fall.
    13. Diego Winkelried & Bruno Escobar, 2022. "Declining inequality in Latin America? Robustness checks for Peru," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(1), pages 223-243, March.
    14. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    15. Boar, Corina & Knowles, Matthew, 2024. "Optimal taxation of risky entrepreneurial capital," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Antoine Ferey & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2024. "Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(10), pages 3206-3249, October.
    17. Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2020. "The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    18. Ferey, Antoine & Haufler, Andreas & Perroni, Carlo, 2023. "Incentives, globalization, and redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    19. Arun Advani & George Bangham & Jack Leslie, 2021. "The UK's wealth distribution and characteristics of high‐wealth households," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3-4), pages 397-430, September.
    20. Mikhail Golosov & Michael Graber & Magne Mogstad & David Novgorodsky, 2024. "How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 1321-1395.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.