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Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Rauh
  • Ryan Shyu

Abstract

Using administrative data, we analyze the response to Proposition 30, a 2012 measure that increased California marginal tax rates by up to 3 percentage points for high-income households. Relative to baseline departure rates, an additional 0.8 percent of the residential tax base that landed in the top bracket left California in 2013. Using matched out-of-state taxpayers as controls reveals an income elasticity with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate of 2.5–3.2 for high earners who stayed. These responses eroded 45.2 percent of state windfall tax revenues within the first year and 60.9 percent within 2 years, driven largely by the intensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Rauh & Ryan Shyu, 2024. "Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 34-86, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:1:p:34-86
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200500
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael MITSOPOULOS & Theodore PELAGIDIS, 2021. "Labor Taxation And Investment In Developed Countries. The Impact On Employment," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 13-31, June.
    2. Lisa Marie Timm & Massimo Giuliodori & Paul Muller, 2025. "Tax Incentives for Migrants with Mid-level Earnings: Evidence from the Netherlands," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 42-79, July.
    3. Lawrence M. Kessler & Donald Bruce, 2024. "A SALT on real estate? Housing market and migration responses to the limit on the state and local tax deduction," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 683-704, October.
    4. Colas, Mark & Saulnier, Emmett, 2023. "Vertical migration externalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Minjie Deng, 2024. "Inequality, Taxation, and Sovereign Default Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 217-249, April.
    6. repec:hpe:journl:y:2025:v:253:i:2:p:91-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H73 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Interjurisdictional Differentials and Their Effects
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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