IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11930.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Strategic Bankruptcies. Do Smart Politicians Do It Better?

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Bordignon
  • Davide Cipullo
  • Gilberto Turati

Abstract

We study the reaction of low vs. high-skilled politicians to a reform, approved in Italy in 2011, that introduces stringent individual financial and career sanctions to local administrators who are judged responsible for their municipality’s bankruptcy. To this aim, we leverage exogenous variation induced by close elections between a mayoral candidate who holds a college degree and a mayoral candidate who does not. After the introduction of sanctions, skilled politicians tend to declare bankruptcy with a higher probability than low-skilled politicians. The effect is concentrated in municipalities in which the financial state of distress was not advocating for a bankruptcy. Our findings document that individual sanctions against politicians may backfire if strategic considerations are not taken into account properly.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bordignon & Davide Cipullo & Gilberto Turati, 2025. "Strategic Bankruptcies. Do Smart Politicians Do It Better?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11930, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11930.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    3. Timothy J. Goodspeed, 2017. "Bailouts and Soft Budget Constraints in Decentralized Government: A Synthesis and Survey of an Alternative View of Intergovernmental Grant Policy," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 221(2), pages 113-134, June.
    4. Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello & Lorenzo Cappellari & Maria De Paola, 2023. "The long-run earnings effects of winning a mayoral election," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-02, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    5. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland, 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    6. Baltrunaite, Audinga & Bello, Piera & Casarico, Alessandra & Profeta, Paola, 2014. "Gender quotas and the quality of politicians," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 62-74.
    7. Massimo Bordignon & Tommaso Nannicini & Guido Tabellini, 2016. "Moderating Political Extremism: Single Round versus Runoff Elections under Plurality Rule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2349-2370, August.
    8. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Do Better Paid Politicians Perform Better? Disentangling Incentives From Selection," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 369-398, April.
    9. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 401-407, May.
    10. Bracco, Emanuele & Porcelli, Francesco & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Political competition, tax salience and accountability. Theory and evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 138-163.
    11. Guo, Si & Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2022. "A dynamic model of fiscal decentralization and public debt accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    12. Besley, Timothy, 2007. "Principled Agents?: The Political Economy of Good Government," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199283910, Decembrie.
    13. Massimo Bordignon, 2000. "Problems of Soft Budget Constraints in Intergovernmental Relationships: The Case of Italy," Research Department Publications 3099, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    15. Alpino, Matteo & Asatryan, Zareh & Blesse, Sebastian & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2022. "Austerity and distributional policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 112-127.
    16. Jonathan A. Rodden & Gunnar S. Eskeland (ed.), 2003. "Fiscal Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182297, December.
    17. Baltrunaite, Audinga & Casarico, Alessandra & Profeta, Paola & Savio, Giulia, 2019. "Let the voters choose women," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    18. Bordignon, Massimo & Gamalerio, Matteo & Turati, Gilberto, 2020. "Manager or professional politician? Local fiscal autonomy and the skills of elected officials," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Martin Besfamille & Ben Lockwood, 2008. "Bailouts In Federations: Is A Hard Budget Constraint Always Best?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 577-593, May.
    20. Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1143-1162, December.
    21. Davide Cipullo, 2021. "Voting Systems and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Runoff and Plurality Elections," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 347-376.
    22. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    23. Bellofatto, Antonio Andrés & Besfamille, Martín, 2018. "Regional state capacity and the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 225-243.
    24. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    25. Emanuele Padovani & Francesco Porcelli & Alberto Zanardi, 2024. "The determinants of the financial distress of Italian municipalities: How much is it due to inadequate resources?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(6), pages 1494-1533, December.
    26. Bordignon, Massimo & Turati, Gilberto, 2009. "Bailing out expectations and public health expenditure," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 305-321, March.
    27. Antulov-Fantulin, Nino & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Resce, Giuliano, 2021. "Predicting bankruptcy of local government: A machine learning approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 681-699.
    28. Eyraud, Luc & Lusinyan, Lusine, 2013. "Vertical fiscal imbalances and fiscal performance in advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 571-587.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Si & Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2022. "A dynamic model of fiscal decentralization and public debt accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Gianmarco Daniele & Amedeo Piolatto & Willem Sas, 2018. "Who Sent You? Strategic Voting, Transfers and Bailouts in a Federation," Working Papers. Serie AD 2018-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Si Guo & Yun Pei & Zoe Xie, 2018. "Decentralization and Overborrowing in a Fiscal Federation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Davide Cipullo, 2023. "When Women Take All: Direct Election and Female Leadership," CESifo Working Paper Series 10229, CESifo.
    5. Dong, Zhanyu & Cai, Jiayi & Li, Xuchao & Luan, Mengna, 2025. "Firm-level impacts and recovery dynamics following a public health crisis: Lessons from China’s SARS experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Pinotti, Paolo & Bhalotra, Sonia & Britto, Diogo & Sampaio, Breno, 2021. "Job Displacement, Unemployment Benefits and Domestic Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Casarico, Alessandra & Lattanzio, Salvatore & Profeta, Paola, 2022. "Women and local public finance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Luigi Marattin & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Porcelli, 2022. "Revenue vs expenditure based fiscal consolidation: the pass-through from federal cuts to local taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 834-872, August.
    9. Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini & Ugo Troiano, 2011. "Policy Responses to Fiscal Restraints: A Difference-in-Discontinuities Design," Working Papers 397, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Boffa, Federico & Mollisi, Vincenzo & Ponzetto, Giacomo, 2023. "Do Incompetent Politicians Breed Populist Voters? Evidence from Italian Municipalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 17997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Baraldi, Anna Laura & Immordino, Giovanni & Stimolo, Marco, 2022. "Self-selecting candidates or compelling voters: How organized crime affects political selection," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Gianmarco Daniele & Tommaso Giommoni, 2019. "Corruption under Austerity," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19131, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Mattioli, Francesco & Minello, Alessandra & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2025. "The Demographic Impact of Leadership: Mayoral Education and COVID-19 Excess Mortality in Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 17992, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Marco Alberto De Benedetto, 2018. "Quality of Politicians and Electoral System. Evidence from a Quasi-experimental Design for Italian Cities," BCAM Working Papers 1802, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    15. Si Guo & Yun Pei & Zoe Xie, 2018. "Fiscal Decentralization, Intergovernmental Transfer, and Overborrowing," 2018 Meeting Papers 975, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Marco Alberto De Benedetto & Maria De Paola, 2017. "Candidates’ Education and Turnout: Evidence from Italian Municipal Elections," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 18(1), pages 22-50, February.
    17. Foremny, Dirk & Solé-Ollé, Albert, 2016. "Who's coming to the rescue? Revenue-sharing slumps and implicit bailouts during the Great Recession," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. De Benedetto, Marco Alberto, 2018. "Quality of Politicians and Electoral System. Evidence from a Quasi-experimental Design for Italian Cities," MPRA Paper 89511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bellofatto, Antonio Andrés & Besfamille, Martín, 2018. "Regional state capacity and the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 225-243.
    20. Cipullo, Davide, 2018. "Runoff vs. Plurality: Does It Matter for Expenditures? Evidence from Italy," Working Paper Series 2018:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.