IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cverdp/042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Young people, human capital investment and the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Cavaglia
  • Sandra McNally

Abstract

Policy makers recognise the importance of encouraging young people to stay in education for longer. We use the experience of the Great Recession in England to evaluate whether the incentive to invest in human capital bears fruit in terms of educational achievement and future labour market outcomes. We compare those on the cusp of their post-compulsory education to those who had already passed that point in their lives before the recession arrived. We also use variation in the severity of the Great Recession across different areas to identify effects. Our results suggest an effect on enrolment that translates into higher levels of achievement, which is driven by an increase in vocational qualifications. We also show that younger cohorts fare well relative to later cohorts in terms of early labour market outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Cavaglia & Sandra McNally, 2025. "Young people, human capital investment and the Great Recession," CVER Research Papers 042, Centre for Vocational Education Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cverdp:042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cver.lse.ac.uk/textonly/cver/pubs/cverdp042.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. C. Herbert Emery & Ana Ferrer & David Green, 2012. "Long-Term Consequences of Natural Resource Booms for Human Capital Accumulation," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(3), pages 708-734, July.
    2. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    3. Brian Bell & Anna Bindler & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Crime Scars: Recessions and the Making of Career Criminals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 392-404, July.
    4. Alessandrini, Diana, 2018. "Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    6. Franziska Hampf & Marc Piopiunik & Simon Wiederhold, 2020. "The Effects of Graduating from High School in a Recession: College Investments, Skill Formation, and Labor-Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8252, CESifo.
    7. Elena Meschi & Joanna Swaffield & Anna Vignoles, 2019. "The role of local labour market conditions and pupil attainment on post-compulsory schooling decisions," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(8), pages 1482-1509, January.
    8. Steven Mcintosh, 2006. "Further Analysis of the Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(2), pages 225-251, April.
    9. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    10. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    11. Holford, Angus, 2020. "Youth employment, academic performance and labour market outcomes: Production functions and policy effects," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    13. Gregg, Paul & Tominey, Emma, 2005. "The wage scar from male youth unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 487-509, August.
    14. Dan A. Black & Terra G. McKinnish & Seth G. Sanders, 2005. "Tight Labor Markets and the Demand for Education: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 59(1), pages 3-16, October.
    15. Emilia Del Bono & Greta Morando, 2022. "For some, luck matters more: the impact of the great recession on the early careers of graduates from different socio-economic backgrounds [Cashier or consultant? Entry labor market conditions, fie," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 869-893.
    16. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    17. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    18. Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer, 2020. "Job loss at home: children’s school performance during the Great Recession," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105099, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    20. René Morissette & Ping Ching Winnie Chan & Yuqian Lu, 2015. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(1), pages 222-253.
    21. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    22. Tumino, Alberto & P. Taylor, Mark, 2015. "The impact of local labour market conditions on school leaving decisions," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-14, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    23. Petrongolo, Barbara & San Segundo, Maria J., 2002. "Staying-on at school at 16: the impact of labor market conditions in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 353-365, August.
    24. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
    25. Kevin Rinz, 2022. "Did Timing Matter? Life Cycle Differences in Effects of Exposure to the Great Recession," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 703-735.
    26. Jonathan Roth, 2018. "Should We Adjust for the Test for Pre-trends in Difference-in-Difference Designs?," Papers 1804.01208, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    27. Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan & Bilal Nasim, 2012. "The Impact of Fathers' Job Loss during the Recession of the 1980s on their Children's Educational Attainment and Labour Market Outcomes," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 237-264, June.
    28. Damon Clark, 2011. "Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post‐compulsory Education in England," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 523-545, July.
    29. Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2020. "Job loss at home: children’s school performance during the Great Recession," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 243-286, September.
    30. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bičáková, Alena & Cortes, Guido Matias & Mazza, Jacopo, 2023. "Make your own luck: The wage gains from starting college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Jake Anders & Lindsey Macmillan, 2020. "The unequal scarring effects of a recession on young people's life chances," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 6, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jun 2020.
    3. Lee, Kyeongah, 2024. "The heterogenous effects of initial labor market conditions on entrants' careers across types of colleges," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Jeremy Kirk, 2024. "The Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession," Working Papers 24-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Arnup, Jessica L. & Black, Nicole & Johnston, David W., 2024. "Expecting less in hard times: How the state of the economy influences students’ educational expectations," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. David, Sandberg, 2024. "The Effect of Military Base Closures on Young Adults," Working Papers 2024:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    7. Jaime Arellano-Bover, 2022. "The Effect of Labor Market Conditions at Entry on Workers' Long-Term Skills," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1028-1045, December.
    8. Emilia Del Bono & Greta Morando, 2022. "For some, luck matters more: the impact of the great recession on the early careers of graduates from different socio-economic backgrounds [Cashier or consultant? Entry labor market conditions, fie," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 869-893.
    9. Han, Luyi & Winters, John V., 2020. "Industry Fluctuations and College Major Choices: Evidence from an Energy Boom and Bust," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Lucas Finamor, 2022. "Labor market conditions and college graduation: evidence from Brazil," Papers 2201.11047, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    11. Garrett Anstreicher, 2020. "Family Formation and the Great Recession," Working Papers 20-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    12. Berniell, Inés & Gasparini, Leonardo & Marchionni, Mariana & Viollaz, Mariana, 2023. "Lucky women in unlucky cohorts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Patrick Bennett, 2021. "The Work-To-School Transition: Job Displacement and Skill Upgrading among Young High School Dropouts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9417, CESifo.
    14. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    15. Toman Barsbai & Andreas Steinmayr & Christoph Winter, 2022. "Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S," Working Papers 2022-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    16. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    17. Mosquera, Roberto, 2022. "The long-term effect of resource booms on human capital," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Schwandt, Hannes & Wachter, Till von, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 12908, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Jake Anders & Andy Dickerson & Paul Gregg & Lindsey Macmillan, 2020. "Unemployment: The Coming Storm, Who Gets Hit, Who Gets Hurt, and Policy Remedies," CEPEO Working Paper Series 20-12, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jul 2020.
    20. Alessandrini, Diana, 2018. "Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cverdp:042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cver.lse.ac.uk/publications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.