A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model
This article presents a stochastic dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage, and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation captures the possible fuel substitution that can be made between oil, coal, and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. The demand is made random because of the oil price fluctuations and we take into account long-term contracts in an endogenous way. The model is applied to represent the European natural gas market and to forecast, until 2035, after a calibration process, patterns of consumption, prices, production, and long-term contract prices and volumes. In terms of policy implications, we show how the perception of the oil price’s uncertainty modifies the gas long-term contract volumes in Europe between the producers and the midstreamers. Finally, we define the value, gain and loss of the stochastic solution adapted to our model and calculate them for each market actor.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ruud Egging & Steven A. Gabriel & Franziska Holz & Jifang Zhuang, 2007.
"A Complementarity Model for the European Natural Gas Market,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
732, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
- Harker, Patrick T., 1991. "Generalized Nash games and quasi-variational inequalities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 81-94, September.
- Ibrahim Abada & Vincent Briat & Steve A. Gabriel & Olivier Massol, 2011.
"A Generalized Nash-Cournot Model for the North-Western European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel SubstitutionDemand Function: The GaMMES Model,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2011-8, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
- Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006.
"Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
- Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark C. Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," Working Papers 05-20, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," NBER Working Papers 11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013.
"Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
- Ibrahim Abada & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2011. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-13, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Perner, J. & Seeliger, A., 2004. "Prospects of gas supplies to the European market until 2030--results from the simulation model EUGAS," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 291-302, December.
- Xu, Haiyan & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010.
"A trend deduction model of fluctuating oil prices,"
26947, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Nov 2010.
- Wietze Lise and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2009. "A Dynamic Simulation of Market Power in the Liberalised European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 119-136.
- S. Gabriel & J. Fuller, 2010. "A Benders Decomposition Method for Solving Stochastic Complementarity Problems with an Application in Energy," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 301-329, April.
- Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998.
"Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-18.
- Golombec, R. & Gjelsvik, E. & Knut, E. & Rosendahl, E., 1996. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side on the Western European Natural Gas Merket," Memorandum 11/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Gabriel, Steven A. & Zhuang, Jifang & Egging, Ruud, 2009. "Solving stochastic complementarity problems in energy market modeling using scenario reduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1028-1040, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cec:wpaper:1308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Climate Economics Chair)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.