Devaluation Beliefs and Debt Crisis: The Argentinian Case
Throughout the year 2001 the Argentine real GDP fell by 20 percent and the Investment Rate decreased by more than 20 percent of the GDP. The government made several announcements on changes in exchange rate policy in order to assist the recovery of the economy. At same time, the Trade Balance produced a huge surplus and the Argentine External Debt over GDP ratio increased so much that it forced the Argentinian government to default and, afterwards, devalue the peso 40 percent. We explore the relationship between default and the expectations on devaluation. We find that depending on the level of debt and given an expectation of devaluation two types of crises can arise: if the level of debt is low the government devalues but does not default; for a higher level of debt, the government devalues and defaults to cancel the future cost of repaying the debt. We have calibrated our model to match the main features of the Argentine crisis and we show that the External Debt over GDP ratio was in a crisis zone where the government found it optimal to default and to devalue.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: c/ Bailén 50. 41001 Sevilla|
Phone: (34) 955 055 210
Fax: (34) 955 055 211
Web page: http://www.centrodeestudiosandaluces.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998.
"Self-fulfilling debt crises,"
211, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E., 2001.
"Argentina's lost decade,"
0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002.
"Online Appendix to Argentina's Lost Decade and the Subsequent Recovery Puzzle,"
kydland02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2004_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Susana Mérida)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.