IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cea/doctra/e2004_09.html

Devaluation Beliefs and Debt Crisis: The Argentinian Case

Author

Abstract

Throughout the year 2001 the Argentine real GDP fell by 20 percent and the Investment Rate decreased by more than 20 percent of the GDP. The government made several announcements on changes in exchange rate policy in order to assist the recovery of the economy. At same time, the Trade Balance produced a huge surplus and the Argentine External Debt over GDP ratio increased so much that it forced the Argentinian government to default and, afterwards, devalue the peso 40 percent. We explore the relationship between default and the expectations on devaluation. We find that depending on the level of debt and given an expectation of devaluation two types of crises can arise: if the level of debt is low the government devalues but does not default; for a higher level of debt, the government devalues and defaults to cancel the future cost of repaying the debt. We have calibrated our model to match the main features of the Argentine crisis and we show that the External Debt over GDP ratio was in a crisis zone where the government found it optimal to default and to devalue.

Suggested Citation

  • José-María Da-Rocha & Eduardo L. Giménez & Francisco-Xavier Lores, 2004. "Devaluation Beliefs and Debt Crisis: The Argentinian Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/09, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    • Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2004_09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://public.centrodeestudiosandaluces.es/pdfs/E200409.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    2. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 152-165, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What Can We Learn from the Current Crisis in Argentina?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 609-633, November.
    2. Dooyeon Cho & Antonio Doblas-Madrid, 2013. "Business Cycle Accounting East and West: Asian Finance and the Investment Wedge," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 724-744, October.
    3. Russell Cooper & Kalin Nikolov, 2018. "Government Debt And Banking Fragility: The Spreading Of Strategic Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1905-1925, November.
    4. Finn Kydland & Carlos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's recovery and excess capital shallowing of the 1990s," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1 Year 20), pages 35-45, June.
    5. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    6. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    8. Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Default, and Bailouts," Working Paper Series in Economics 67, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    9. Guo, Yanhong & Zhang, Ziyi & Meng, Hui, 2025. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign debt default risk," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    12. Andrés Fernández, 2010. "“Tropical” Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(61), pages 60-105.
    13. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Stelios Fourakis, 2020. "On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 163-194, March.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Aitor Erce & Timothy Uy, 2017. "Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis," Discussion Papers 1720, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    15. Patrick M. Emerson & Shawn D. Knabb, 2007. "Fiscal Policy, Expectation Traps, And Child Labor," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(3), pages 453-469, July.
    16. Cristina Arellano, 2005. "Default Risk, the Real Exchange Rate and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," Working Papers 757, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2014. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-218.
    19. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    20. Taştan, Hüseyin, 2013. "Real business cycles in emerging economies: Turkish case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 106-113.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2004_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Susana Mérida The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Susana Mérida to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fcanges.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.