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After the Fall: An Ex Post Characterization of Housing Price Declines Across Metropolitan Areas

  • Carson, Richard T
  • Dastrup, Samuel R.

Housing prices have plummeted across the United States. This paper examines differences in the magnitude of housing price decreases across metropolitan areas. A relatively small number of housing market variables observable before the fall are capable of explaining over 70% of the considerable variation in price declines. An additional nonparametric analysis suggests that exceeding particular thresholds for some of the key predictors is associated with much larger price drops. These findings are consistent with historical price patterns and raise questions about the validity of mortgage pricing and risk diversification norms in the US. The analysis points to a set of stylized facts concerning the housing price bubble that need to be explained and suggests fruitful hypotheses for understanding the dramatic housing price declines.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt7ng9d927.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt7ng9d927
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  1. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
  2. Kelly, Austin, 2007. "Zero down payment mortgage default," MPRA Paper 4318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Charles P. Himmelberg & Christopher J. Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen Pence, 2008. "Subprime Mortgages: What, Where, and to Whom?," NBER Working Papers 14083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. William N. Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2009. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," NBER Working Papers 15334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Engle, Robert & Navarro, Peter & Carson, Richard, 1992. "On the theory of growth controls," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 269-283, November.
  9. A. Saiz, 2008. "On Local Housing Supply Elasticity," ERES eres2008_241, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  10. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence, 2008. "Subprime mortgages: what, where, and to whom?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Gabriel Stuart A. & Quigley John M. & Rosenthal Larry A., 2009. "The Mortgage Meltdown, the Economy, and Public Policy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, March.
  12. Jan K. Brueckner, 1990. "Growth Controls and Land Values in an Open City," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 66(3), pages 237-248.
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