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Zero down payment mortgage default

  • Kelly, Austin

Previous research has focused on equity as a prime determinant of mortgage default propensities. This paper extends the analysis of mortgage default to include mortgages that require no down payment from the purchaser. A continuous time hazard model is used to estimate the conditional probability of a serious delinquency, or a claim, as a function of a host of standard control variables, and indicators for the presence and source of the down payment. The data consist of a nationally representative random sample of about 5,000 FHA insured single family mortgages endorsed in Fiscal Years 2000, 2001, and 2002, observed through September 30, 2006, and samples of about 1,000 FHA loans each from the Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Salt Lake City MSAs in the same time period. The results indicate that borrowers who provide down payments from their own resources have significantly lower default propensities than do borrowers whose down payments come from relatives, government agencies, or non-profits. Borrowers with down payments from seller-funded non-profits, who make no down payment at all, have the highest default rates. Additionally, borrowers who do not make down payments from their own resources tend to have higher loss given default in the small subset of loans that had completed the property disposition process.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4318/1/MPRA_paper_4318.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5370/1/MPRA_paper_5370.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12478/1/MPRA_paper_12478.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4318.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4318
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  1. Donald R. Haurin & Susan M. Wachter & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Wealth Accumulation and Housing Choices of Young Households: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Peter Linneman & Susan Wachter, 1989. "The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 389-402.
  3. Krumm, Ronald & Kelly, Austin, 1989. "Effects of homeownership on household savings," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 281-294, November.
  4. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
  5. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551.
  6. David M. Harrison & Thomas G. Noordewier & Abdullah Yavas, 2004. "Do Riskier Borrowers Borrow More?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 385-411, 09.
  7. Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "A dynamic look at subprime loan performance," Working Papers 2005-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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