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Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use

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  • Guindon, G. Emmanuel
  • Boisclair, David

Abstract

This paper first estimates the number of tobacco users in 2000 and cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2000 by regions and levels of development and briefly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of estimating tobacco use on the basis of prevalence surveys or aggregate data. Secondly, prevalence and cigarette consumption are projected in the future using several scenarios of changes in tobacco use, as well as different assumptions about population and income growth. The results show that even if all countries immediately implement a comprehensive set of tobacco control policies, the reduction in the number of tobacco users and the total consumption will be gradual. This should give comfort to farmers and others who fear the impact of tobacco control on their livelihoods. It is however, discouraging news for public health, since it implies that the number of tobacco-attributable deaths will continue to rise for decades to come.

Suggested Citation

  • Guindon, G. Emmanuel & Boisclair, David, 2003. "Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt4q57d5vp, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ctcres:qt4q57d5vp
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    1. Hatziandreu, E.J. & Pierce, J.P. & Fiore, M.C. & Grise, V. & Novotny, T.E. & Davis, R.M., 1989. "The reliability of self-reported cigarette consumption in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 79(8), pages 1020-1023.
    2. Warner, K.E., 1977. "The effects of the anti smoking campaign on cigarette consumption," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 67(7), pages 645-650.
    3. Craig A. Gallet & John A. List, 2003. "Cigarette demand: a meta‐analysis of elasticities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(10), pages 821-835, October.
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    2. Wipfli, Heather & Huang, Grace, 2011. "Power of the process: Evaluating the impact of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control negotiations," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 107-115.
    3. Rodríguez-Planas, Núria & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2019. "Intergenerational transmission of gender social norms and teenage smoking," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 122-132.
    4. Azmat Gani, 2009. "Some Aspects of Communicable and Non-communicable Diseases in Pacific Island Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 171-187, April.
    5. Xianglong Xu & Lingli Liu & Manoj Sharma & Yong Zhao, 2015. "Smoking-Related Knowledge, Attitudes, Behaviors, Smoking Cessation Idea and Education Level among Young Adult Male Smokers in Chongqing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Sanath Sameera Wijesinghe, 2019. "Tobacco Epidemic and Development: The South Asian Experience," Annals of Social Sciences & Management studies, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 4(3), pages 59-68, September.
    7. Rodríguez-Planas, Núria & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2016. "Social Norms and Teenage Smoking: The Dark Side of Gender Equality," IZA Discussion Papers 10134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza & Rakhshani, Fatemeh & Shahraki-Sanavi, Fariba & Mohammadi, Mahdi & Miri-Bonjar, Mahmodreza & Bakhshani, Nour-Mohammad, 2016. "Prevalence and patterns of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use among Iranian adolescents: A meta-analysis of 58 studies," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 68-79.
    9. Wolff, Hendrik & Chong, Howard & Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2008. "Consequences of Data Error in Aggregate Indicators: Evidence from the Human Development Index," CUDARE Working Papers 6502, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    10. Pampel, Fred, 2008. "Tobacco use in sub-Sahara Africa: Estimates from the demographic health surveys," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(8), pages 1772-1783, April.
    11. Anh Ngo & Geoffrey T. Fong & Lorraine V. Craig & Ce Shang, 2019. "Analysis of Gender Differences in the Impact of Taxation and Taxation Structure on Cigarette Consumption in 17 ITC Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-11, April.
    12. Wolff, Hendrik & Chong, Howard & Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2008. "Consequences of Data Error in Aggregate Indicators: Evidence from the Human Development Index," IZA Discussion Papers 3346, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Wolff, Hendrik & Chong, Howard & Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2009. "Human Development Index: Are Developing Countries Misclassified? (former title: "Consequences of Data Error in Aggregate Indicators: Evidence from the Human Development Index)," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49763, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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