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Why Do Fewer Agricultural Workers Migrate Now?

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  • Fan, Maoyong
  • Gabbard, Susan
  • Pena, Anita Alves
  • Perloff, Jeffrey M

Abstract

The share of agricultural workers who migrate within the United States has fallen by approximately 60% since the late 1990s. To explain this decline in the migration rate, we estimate annual migration - choice models using data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey for 1989 – 2009. On average over the last decade of the sample, one - third of the fall in the migration rate was due to changes in the demographic composition of the workforce, while two - thirds was due to changes in coefficients (“structural” change). In some years, demographic changes were responsible for half of the overall change.

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  • Fan, Maoyong & Gabbard, Susan & Pena, Anita Alves & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2014. "Why Do Fewer Agricultural Workers Migrate Now?," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt8nb89219, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt8nb89219
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    Cited by:

    1. Lauren Chenarides & Timothy J. Richards & Bradley Rickard, 2021. "COVID‐19 impact on fruit and vegetable markets: One year later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 203-214, June.
    2. Bradford L. Barham & Ana P. Melo & Thomas Hertz, 2020. "Earnings, Wages, and Poverty Outcomes of US Farm and Low‐Skill Workers," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 307-334, June.
    3. Osti, Surendra & Bampasidou, Maria & Fannin, J. Matthew, 2018. "Revisiting Farm efficiency of Rice-Crawfish farmers: Accounting for the H-2A program," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274339, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Marcelo Castillo & Diane Charlton, 2023. "Housing booms and H‐2A agricultural guest worker employment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 709-731, March.
    5. Wang, Sun Ling & Hoppe, Robert A. & Hertz, Thomas & Xu, Shicong, 2022. "Farm Labor, Human Capital, and Agricultural Productivity in the United States," USDA Miscellaneous 323858, United States Department of Agriculture.
    6. Rutledge, Zach & Richards, Timothy & Martin, Philip, 2023. "Adverse Effect Wage Rates and US Farm Wages," 2024 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2024, San Antonio, Texas 339074, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Srabashi Ray & Thomas W. Hertel, 2025. "Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of Conservation Policies: The Role of Labor Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(5), pages 1147-1193, May.
    8. Devadoss, Stephen & Luckstead, Jeff, 2017. "Immigration Policies and Farm Labor," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258435, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Christiaensen, Luc & Rutledge, Zachariah & Taylor, J. Edward, 2020. "The Future of Work in Agriculture - Some Reflections," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 32012537, The World Bank.
    10. Chenarides, Lauren & Richards, Timothy & Rickard, Bradley, 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Fruit and Vegetable Markets: One Year Later," Working Papers 309965, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    11. Christiaensen, Luc & Rutledge, Zachariah & Taylor, J. Edward, 2021. "Viewpoint: The future of work in agri-food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Charlton, Diane & Castillo, Marcelo J. & Hertz, Thomas, 2018. "Explaining the Growth in Agricultural Guest Worker Demand," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274171, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2022. "Is ICE freezing US agriculture? Farm-level adjustment to increased local immigration enforcement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2016. "Is ICE Freezing US Agriculture? The Impact of Local Immigration Enforcement on Farm Profitability and Structure," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235950, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Njuki, Eric, 2021. "Nonlinear weather and climate-induced effects on hired farm labor wages: Evidence from the U.S. Cornbelt," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Richards, Timothy J., 2018. "Immigration Reform and Farm Labor Markets," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274165, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Charlton, Diane & Kostandini, Genti, 2018. "How Agricultural Producers Adjust to a Shrinking Farm Labor Supply," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274169, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Zachariah Rutledge & Luc Christiaensen & J. Edward Taylor, 2020. "The Future of Work in Agriculture," World Bank Publications - Reports 33704, The World Bank Group.
    19. Diane Charlton, 2024. "The Farm Workforce Modernization Act and warnings from previous immigration reforms," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(3), pages 934-953, September.
    20. Zach Conrad & Christian J. Peters & Kenneth Chui & Lisa Jahns & Timothy S. Griffin, 2017. "Agricultural Capacity to Increase the Production of Select Fruits and Vegetables in the US: A Geospatial Modeling Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, September.
    21. Shrestha, Samyam, 2024. "Seasonal Labor Shortage and the Production and Trade of Labor-Intensive Goods: Evidence from U.S. Agriculture," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343996, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    24. Castillo, Marcelo & Charlton, Diane, 2021. "Housing Booms and H-2A Agricultural Guest Worker Employment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315322, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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