IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/agrebk/qt8nb89219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why Do Fewer Agricultural Workers Migrate Now?

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Maoyong
  • Gabbard, Susan
  • Pena, Anita Alves
  • Perloff, Jeffrey M

Abstract

The share of agricultural workers who migrate within the United States has fallen by approximately 60% since the late 1990s. To explain this decline in the migration rate, we estimate annual migration - choice models using data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey for 1989 – 2009. On average over the last decade of the sample, one - third of the fall in the migration rate was due to changes in the demographic composition of the workforce, while two - thirds was due to changes in coefficients (“structural” change). In some years, demographic changes were responsible for half of the overall change.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Maoyong & Gabbard, Susan & Pena, Anita Alves & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2014. "Why Do Fewer Agricultural Workers Migrate Now?," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt8nb89219, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt8nb89219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8nb89219.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen R. Boucher & Aaron Smith & J. Edward Taylor & Antonio Yúnez-Naude, 2007. "Impacts of Policy Reforms on the Supply of Mexican Labor to U.S. Farms: New Evidence from Mexico," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 4-16.
    2. Gabbard, Susan M. & Mines, Richard & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 1991. "A Comparison of the CPS and NAWS Surveys of Agricultural Workers," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1cx6t9h9, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    3. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2006. "An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(4), pages 958-980, April.
    4. Philip Martin, 2013. "Immigration and Farm Labor: Policy Options and Consequences," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 470-475.
    5. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2006. "An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 958-980, April.
    6. Elder, Todd E. & Goddeeris, John H. & Haider, Steven J., 2010. "Unexplained gaps and Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 284-290, January.
    7. Manuela Angelucci & Orazio Attanasio & Vincenzo Di Maro, 2012. "The Impact of Oportunidades on Consumption, Savings and Transfers," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 305-334, September.
    8. Wayne A. Cornelius, 2001. "Death at the Border: Efficacy and Unintended Consequences of US Immigration Control Policy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 661-685, December.
    9. J. Edward Taylor, 1992. "Earnings and Mobility of Legal and Illegal Immigrant Workers in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(4), pages 889-896.
    10. Genti Kostandini & Elton Mykerezi & Cesar Escalante, 2014. "The Impact of Immigration Enforcement on the U.S. Farming Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(1), pages 172-192.
    11. Gabbard, Susan M. & Mines, Richard & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 1991. "A Comparison of the CPS and NAWS Surveys of Agricultural Workers," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt1cx6t9h9, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    12. Stark, Oded & Taylor, J Edward, 1991. "Migration Incentives, Migration Types: The Role of Relative Deprivation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1163-1178, September.
    13. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
    14. Perloff, Jeffrey M, 1990. "The impact of wage differentials on choosing to work in agriculture," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt68j399k8, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    15. Philip Martin & Linda Calvin, 2010. "Immigration Reform: What Does It Mean for Agriculture and Rural America?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 232-253.
    16. Dennis, Benjamin N. & Iscan, Talan B., 2007. "Productivity growth and agricultural out-migration in the United States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 52-74, March.
    17. Jeffrey M. Perloff & Lori Lynch & Susan M. Gabbard, 1998. "Migration of Seasonal Agricultural Workers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 154-164.
    18. Tom Hertz & Steven Zahniser, 2013. "Is There A Farm Labor Shortage?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 476-481.
    19. Oded Stark & J. Taylor, 1989. "Relative deprivation and international migration oded stark," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(1), pages 1-14, February.
    20. J. Edward Taylor, 1987. "Undocumented Mexico—U.S. Migration and the Returns to Households in Rural Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 626-638.
    21. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    22. Robert D. Emerson, 1989. "Migratory Labor and Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 617-629.
    23. Jeffrey M. Perloff, 1991. "The Impact of Wage Differentials on Choosing to Work in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 671-680.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rutledge, Zach & Richards, Timothy & Martin, Philip, 2023. "Adverse Effect Wage Rates and US Farm Wages," 2024 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2024, San Antonio, Texas 339074, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Christiaensen, Luc & Rutledge, Zachariah & Taylor, J. Edward, 2020. "The Future of Work in Agriculture - Some Reflections," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 32012537, The World Bank.
    3. Charlton, Diane & Castillo, Marcelo J. & Hertz, Thomas, 2018. "Explaining the Growth in Agricultural Guest Worker Demand," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274171, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Bradford L. Barham & Ana P. Melo & Thomas Hertz, 2020. "Earnings, Wages, and Poverty Outcomes of US Farm and Low‐Skill Workers," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 307-334, June.
    5. Devadoss, Stephen & Luckstead, Jeff, 2017. "Immigration Policies and Farm Labor," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258435, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Christiaensen, Luc & Rutledge, Zachariah & Taylor, J. Edward, 2021. "Viewpoint: The future of work in agri-food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Njuki, Eric, 2021. "Nonlinear weather and climate-induced effects on hired farm labor wages: Evidence from the U.S. Cornbelt," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Diane Charlton, 2024. "The Farm Workforce Modernization Act and warnings from previous immigration reforms," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(3), pages 934-953, September.
    9. Osti, Surendra & Bampasidou, Maria & Fannin, J. Matthew, 2018. "Revisiting Farm efficiency of Rice-Crawfish farmers: Accounting for the H-2A program," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274339, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Chenarides, Lauren & Richards, Timothy & Rickard, Bradley, 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Fruit and Vegetable Markets: One Year Later," Working Papers 309965, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    11. Lauren Chenarides & Timothy J. Richards & Bradley Rickard, 2021. "COVID‐19 impact on fruit and vegetable markets: One year later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 203-214, June.
    12. Srabashi Ray & Thomas W. Hertel, 2025. "Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of Conservation Policies: The Role of Labor Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(5), pages 1147-1193, May.
    13. Richards, Timothy J., 2018. "Immigration Reform and Farm Labor Markets," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274165, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. repec:ags:aaea22:335904 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marcelo Castillo & Diane Charlton, 2023. "Housing booms and H‐2A agricultural guest worker employment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 709-731, March.
    16. Wang, Sun Ling & Hoppe, Robert A & Hertz, Thomas & Xu, Shicong, 2022. "Farm Labor, Human Capital, and Agricultural Productivity in the United States," Economic Research Report 327178, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Charlton, Diane & Kostandini, Genti, 2018. "How Agricultural Producers Adjust to a Shrinking Farm Labor Supply," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274169, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Zach Conrad & Christian J. Peters & Kenneth Chui & Lisa Jahns & Timothy S. Griffin, 2017. "Agricultural Capacity to Increase the Production of Select Fruits and Vegetables in the US: A Geospatial Modeling Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, September.
    19. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2016. "Is ICE Freezing US Agriculture? The Impact of Local Immigration Enforcement on Farm Profitability and Structure," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235950, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Castillo, Marcelo & Charlton, Diane, 2021. "Housing Booms and H-2A Agricultural Guest Worker Employment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315322, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2022. "Is ICE freezing US agriculture? Farm-level adjustment to increased local immigration enforcement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    22. Zachariah Rutledge & Luc Christiaensen & J. Edward Taylor, 2020. "The Future of Work in Agriculture," World Bank Publications - Reports 33704, The World Bank Group.
    23. Shrestha, Samyam, 2024. "Seasonal Labor Shortage and the Production and Trade of Labor-Intensive Goods: Evidence from U.S. Agriculture," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343996, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    24. repec:ags:aaea22:335436 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castillo, Marcelo & Charlton, Diane, 2021. "Housing Booms and H-2A Agricultural Guest Worker Employment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315322, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. A. Ford Ramsey & Tadashi Sonoda & Minkyong Ko, 2023. "Intersectoral labor migration and agriculture in the United States and Japan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 364-381, May.
    3. Jiyoung Park & Seongwoo Lee & Jonghoon Park, 2024. "The Economic Decision of International Migration: Two Empirical Evidences from the United States and Canada," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Ramsey, A. Ford & Sonoda, Tadashi & Ko, Minkyong, 2021. "Aggregation and Threshold Models of Intersectoral Labor Migration: Evidence from the United States and Japan," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315110, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Marcelo Castillo & Diane Charlton, 2023. "Housing booms and H‐2A agricultural guest worker employment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 709-731, March.
    6. Nong ZHU, 2001. "Impacts of Income Gap on Migration Decision in China," Working Papers 200117, CERDI.
    7. Ivan A. Borisov, 2021. "Agricultural personnel and rural labour: How is their reproduction related?," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 161-183, October.
    8. Amelie F. Constant & Annabelle Krause & Ulf Rinne & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Reservation wages of first- and second-generation migrants," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 945-949, July.
    9. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Mathias G. Sinning, 2014. "Distributional Changes in the Gender Wage Gap," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 67(2), pages 335-361, April.
    10. Aleksandra Majchrowska & Paweł Strawiński & Karolina Konopczak & Agnieszka Skierska, 2014. "Why are women paid less than men? An investigation into gender wage gap in Poland," Working Papers 2014-31, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    11. Aleksandra Majchrowska & Pawel Strawinski & Karolina Konopczak & Agnieszka Skierska, 2015. "Gender wage gap by occupational groups in Poland," Lodz Economics Working Papers 3/2015, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    12. Lawrence M. Berger & Sara S. McLanahan, 2011. "Child Wellbeing in Two-Parent Families: How Do Characteristics and Relationships Matter?," Working Papers 1322, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing..
    13. Arland Thornton & Prem Bhandari & Jeffrey Swindle & Nathalie Williams & Linda Young-DeMarco & Cathy Sun & Christina Hughes, 2020. "Fatalistic Beliefs and Migration Behaviors: A Study of Ideational Demography in Nepal," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(4), pages 643-670, August.
    14. John P. Haisken-DeNew & Maren M. Michaelsen, 2011. "Migration Magnet: The Role of Work Experience in Rural-Urban Wage Diff erentials in Mexico," Ruhr Economic Papers 0263, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. repec:pri:crcwel:wp11-13-ff is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Hirpa Tufa, Adane & Alene, Arega D. & Cole, Steven M. & Manda, Julius & Feleke, Shiferaw & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Chikoye, David & Manyong, Victor, 2022. "Gender differences in technology adoption and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Richey, Jeremiah & Rosburg, Alicia, 2016. "Understanding intergenerational economic mobility by decomposing joint distributions," MPRA Paper 72665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tianyuan Luo & Genti Kostandini & Jeffrey L. Jordan, 2023. "Stringent immigration enforcement and the farm sector: Evidence from E‐Verify adoption across states," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1211-1232, June.
    19. Daniela Piazzalunga & Maria Laura Di Tommaso, 2019. "The increase of the gender wage gap in Italy during the 2008-2012 economic crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, June.
    20. Ronald Bachmann & Mathias Sinning, 2016. "Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 853-876, December.
    21. Saari, M. Yusof & Rahman, M. Affan Abdul & Hassan, Azman & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2016. "Estimating the impact of minimum wages on poverty across ethnic groups in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 490-502.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt8nb89219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.