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Do Large-Scale Refinancing Programs Reduce Mortgage Defaults? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design: Working Paper 2015-06

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Ehrlich
  • Jeffrey Perry

Abstract

In 2012, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reduced fees to refinance FHA-insured mortgages obtained before---but not after---a retroactive deadline. We use a natural experiment to study how reduced mortgage payments affect default rates. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that reducing payment size by 1 percent lowers conditional default rates by 2.75 percent. Evidence suggests that those effects are larger for borrowers with negative equity and lower credit scores. We estimate that the policy will prevent more than 35,000 defaults of FHA-insured

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Ehrlich & Jeffrey Perry, 2015. "Do Large-Scale Refinancing Programs Reduce Mortgage Defaults? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design: Working Paper 2015-06," Working Papers 50871, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:50871
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesca Castelli & Damien Moore & Gabriel Ehrlich & Jeffrey Perry, 2014. "Modeling the Budgetary Costs of FHA's Single Family Mortgage Insurance: Working Paper 2014-05," Working Papers 45711, Congressional Budget Office.
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    7. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    8. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
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    14. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2010. "Market-Based Loss Mitigation Practices for Troubled Mortgages Following the Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series 2010-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2022. "The effect of changing mortgage payments on default and prepayment: Evidence from HAMP resets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1231-1256, September.
    2. Anthony A. Defusco & John Mondragon, 2020. "No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a Recession," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2327-2376, October.
    3. Kadiri Karamon & Douglas McManus & Jun Zhu, 2017. "Refinance and Mortgage Default: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of HARP’s Impact on Default Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 457-475, November.
    4. Gene Amromin & Jane Dokko & Karen E. Dynan, 2020. "Helping Homeowners During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from the Great Recession," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 443, pages 1-9, June.
    5. Joshua Abel & Andreas Fuster, 2021. "How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 254-291, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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