Have natural disasters become deadlier?
Abstract The present study seeks to build on earlier work by identifying the factors associated with the frequency of natural disasters and the resulting mortality. Drawing together the main findings, some observations are made from a policy perspective to focus on key elements of a disaster reduction strategy. Countries that were prone to natural disasters in the decade 1970-79 continued to be so in the next two decades. Geophysical factors (e.g. whether landlocked, size of a country) had an important role in explaining inter-country variation in the occurrence of natural disasters. However, income did not have any effect. Deaths varied with the number of disasters; they also varied with (lagged) deaths in the previous decade; poor countries suffered more deaths; and, controlling for these and other effects, larger countries suffered more deaths. The pay-off from learning from experience is high. Even moderate learning can save a large number of deaths (e.g. through early warning systems, better coordination between governments and communities likely to be affected). Growth acceleration would also help avert deaths through more resources for disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. A combination of the two – learning from past experience and more resources for disaster prevention and mitigation – would result in a massive reduction in deaths from disasters. Attention is drawn to segmented and shallow disaster insurance markets; the Samaritan’s dilemma in providing emergency assistance to poor countries that neglect investment in protective measures; the need for mainstreaming of disaster prevention and mitigation among multilateral development agencies and governments, as also growth acceleration; why short-term relief must be combined with rebuilding of livelihoods and reconstruction, and the potential for public-private partnerships; and, above all, the need for building ownership of local communities and preservation of social networks. A challenge for development assistance is to combine growth acceleration with speedy relief and a durable reduction in vulnerability to natural disasters.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Humanities Bridgeford Street, Oxford Road,Manchester, M13 9PL|
Phone: +44(0)7717 881567
Web page: http://www.gdi.manchester.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lester Lave & Jay Apt, 2006. "Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 117-130, September.
- Carter, Michael R. & Little, Peter D. & Mogues, Tewodaj & Negatu, Workneh, 2007. "Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 835-856, May.
- repec:reg:rpubli:435 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:idb:brikps:36798 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
- W. Viscusi & Richard Zeckhauser, 2006.
"National survey evidence on disasters and relief: Risk beliefs, self-interest, and compassion,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-36, September.
- W. Kip Viscusi & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2006. "National Survey Evidence on Disasters and Relief: Risk Beliefs, Self-Interest, and Compassion," NBER Working Papers 12582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Sen, Amartya, 1998.
"Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
- Amartya Sen, 1995. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Papers innlec95/2, Innocenti Lectures.
- Michael Keen & Paul K. Freeman & Muthukumara Mani, 2003. "Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters; Challenges and Options," IMF Working Papers 03/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G.J., 2008.
"On the pricing of intermediated risks: Theory and application to catastrophe reinsurance,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 69-85, January.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G. J. O'Connell, 1997. "On The Pricing of Intermediated Risks: Theory and Application to Catastrophe Reinsurance," NBER Working Papers 6011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell, . "On the Pricing of Intermediated Risks: Theory and Application to Catastrophe Reinsurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-24, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Ilan Noy, 2007.
"The Macroeconomic Consequences of Disasters,"
200707, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Viscusi, W. Kip & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011.
"Addressing Catastrophic Risks: Disparate Anatomies Require Tailored Therapies,"
Working Paper Series
rwp11-045, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Viscusi, Kip W. & Zeckhauser, Richard Jay, 2011. "Addressing Catastrophic Risks: Disparate Anatomies Require Tailored Therapies," Scholarly Articles 5688700, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Stéphane Hallegatte & Valentin Przyluski, 2010. "The Economics of Natural Disasters," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 14-24, 07.
- Dasgupta, Partha, 2007. "Economics: A Very Short Introduction," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192853455, December.
- Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
- Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007.
"Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters,"
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2005. "Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters," Working Papers 05-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bwp:bwppap:18113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rowena Harding)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.