IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunwpe/0387.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Earthquakes and Civil War

Author

Listed:
  • Ahlerup, Pelle

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

Natural disasters claim thousands of lives each year and can be a heavy burden for already vulnerable societies. Are natural disasters also a cause of violent conflict? While most studies based on systematic empirical research do find this to be the case, there are also known cases where natural disasters have contributed to a de-escalation of fighting. This paper shows, theoretically and empirically, that moderate earthquakes increase the risk of civil wars, but that stronger (and therefore more rare) earthquakes instead reduce the risk of civil wars. We use an exhaustive dataset on earthquakes from 1947 to 2001 collected by seismologists. The association between earthquakes and the incidence of civil war is decomposed into two separate effects: they affect the risk that new civil wars are started and they affect the chance that existing civil wars are terminated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlerup, Pelle, 2009. "Earthquakes and Civil War," Working Papers in Economics 387, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/21202
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    2. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    3. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
    4. Anbarci, Nejat & Escaleras, Monica & Register, Charles A., 2005. "Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1907-1933, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; earthquakes; natural disaster;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/naiguse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.