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Impaired Bank Health and Default Risk

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  • Shin-ichi Fukuda

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Munehisa Kasuya

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kentaro Akashi

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Empirical studies in corporate finance have long been interested in the role of banks in reducing the costs of financial distress. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how various measures of bank health and how defaults of major trading partners affected the probability of bankruptcy among medium-size firms in Japan. Using probit models, we examine the causes of bankruptcy for unlisted Japanese companies in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The environment and events in Japan provide a "natural experiment" that allows the empirical test. We find that several measures on bank-specific financial health have significant impacts on a borrower's probability of bankruptcy, even when observable characteristics relating to these borrower's financial variables are controlled for. In particular, a close bank-firm relationship--which usually reduces the probability of bankruptcy--exacerbates the impacts of a financial crisis, which substantially damages other bank health measures as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Kentaro Akashi, 2005. "Impaired Bank Health and Default Risk," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-13, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:05-e-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guvenir, H. Altay & Cakir, Murat, 2009. "Voting Features based Classifier with Feature Construction and its Application to Predicting Financial Distress," MPRA Paper 21595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shin‐ichi Fukuda & Jun‐ichi Nakamura, 2011. "Why Did ‘Zombie’ Firms Recover in Japan?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1124-1137, July.
    3. Ellis Kofi, Akwaa-Sekyi & Portia, Bosompra, 2015. "Determinants of business loan default in Ghana," MPRA Paper 71961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Höwer, Daniel, 2013. "Corporate main bank decision," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-018, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
    6. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Kentaro Akashi, 2007. "The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms: An Implication from Japan's Banking Crisis," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 3(1), pages 27-50, December.
    7. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
    8. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Jouchi Nakajima, 2005. "Deteriorating Bank Health and Lending in Japan: Evidence from Unlisted Companies Undergoing Financial Distress," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-364, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2018. "SMEs' near-death experiences. Do local banks extend a helping hand?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 47-65.
    10. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Kentaro Akashi, 2007. "The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms : An Implication from Japan’s Banking Crisis," Finance Working Papers 22596, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Orihara, Masanori, 2017. "Stock market listing and corporate policy: Evidence from reforms to Japanese corporate law," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 15-36.
    12. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "The role of corporate governance in Japanese unlisted companies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 27-39.
    13. Harada, Nobuyuki & Kageyama, Noriyuki, 2011. "Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 119-128, March.
    14. Abildgren, Kim & Vølund Buchholst, Birgitte & Staghøj, Jonas, 2013. "Bank-firm relationships and the survival of non-financial firms during the financial crisis 2008-2009," Working Paper Series 1516, European Central Bank.
    15. Haq, Mamiza & Faff, Robert & Seth, Rama & Mohanty, Sunil, 2014. "Disciplinary tools and bank risk exposure," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 37-64.
    16. Höwer, Daniel, 2016. "The role of bank relationships when firms are financially distressed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 59-75.
    17. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Jouchi Nakajima, 2005. "Deteriorating Bank Health and Lending in Japan: Evidence from Unlisted Companies Undergoing Financial Distress (Subsequently published in "Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy" Vo.11, No.4, D," CARF F-Series CARF-F-042, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    18. Miyajima, Hideaki & Yafeh, Yishay, 2007. "Japan's banking crisis: An event-study perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2866-2885, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy; Bank-firm relationship; Hold-up problem; Unlisted firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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