Modeling the Components of Market Discipline
This paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived by the minimization under discretion of a standard central bank loss function subject to a Phillips curve, modified to include the forecast deviation, and a forward-looking aggregate demand equation. This rule, which itself includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument, is estimated for the period 1974-1998, covering the Chairmanships of Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by using real-time forecasts of inflation and the output gap obtained from the FOMC’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The estimated rule remains remarkably stable over the whole sample period, challenging the conventional view of a structural break following Volcker’s appointment as Chairman of the Fed. Finally, the substantial decline in the significance of the interest-rate smoothing term in the rule indicates that monetary policy inertia may, to a large extent, be an artifact of serially correlated inflation-forecast errors that feed into policy decisions in real time.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002.
"Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility,"
Conference Series ; [Proceedings],
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998.
"Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
- Herring, Richard J., 2004. "The subordinated debt alternative to Basel II," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 137-155, December.
- V. Crawford & J. Sobel, 2010.
"Strategic Information Transmission,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
544, David K. Levine.
- Andrea Sironi, 2000.
"Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sironi, Andrea, 2003. " Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-472, June.
- Hyun Song Shin, 2001.
"Disclosures and asset returns,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
25044, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tito Cordella, 1997.
"Public Disclosure and Bank Failures,"
IMF Working Papers
97/96, International Monetary Fund.
- Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
- Boot, Arnoud W A & Thakor, Anjan V, 2001.
"The Many Faces of Information Disclosure,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 1021-1057.
- Jordan, John S. & Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2000. "The Market Reaction to the Disclosure of Supervisory Actions: Implications for Bank Transparency," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 298-319, July.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000.
"Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 1995. "Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 1177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ari Hyytinen & Tuomas Takalo, 2004.
"Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, 07.
- Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2001. "Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency," Discussion Papers 776, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2003. "Preventing systemic crises through bank transparency," Research Discussion Papers 25/2003, Bank of Finland.
- Donald Morgan & Kevin Stiroh, 2001. "Market Discipline of Banks: The Asset Test," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 195-208, October.
- Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.
- Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Schmeits, Anjolein, 2000. "Market Discipline and Incentive Problems in Conglomerate Firms with Applications to Banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 240-273, July.
- Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
- Ursel Baumann & Erlend Nier, 2004. "Disclosure, volatility, and transparency: and empirical investigation into the value of bank disclosure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 31-45.
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.