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The Regression Tournament: A Novel Approach to Prediction Model Assessment

  • Adi Schnytzer


    (Bar-Ilan University)

  • Janez Šušteršič

    (University of Primorska)

Standard methods to assess the statistical quality of econometric models implicitly assume there is only one person in the world, namely the forecaster with her model(s), and that there exists an objective and independent reality to which the model predictions may be compared. However, on many occasions, the reality with which we compare our predictions and in which we take our actions is co-determined and changed constantly by actions taken by other actors based on their own models. We propose a new method, called a regression tournament, to assess the utility of forecasting models and taking these interactions into account. We present an empirical case of betting on Australian Rules Football matches where the most accurate predictive model does not yield the highest betting return, or, in our terms, does not win a regression tournament.

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Paper provided by Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-10.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-10
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  1. Kanbur, Ravi & Rapoport, Hillel, 2003. "Migration Selectivity And The Evolution Of Spatial Inequality," Working Papers 127769, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  2. Daniel Levy & Haipeng Allan Chen & Sourav Ray & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment "in the Small:" An Implication of Rational Inattention," Macroeconomics 0407012, EconWPA, revised 11 May 2005.
  3. Daniel Levy & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Georg Müller & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2010. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 172-198, 01.
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  5. Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2011. "Shrinking Goods and Sticky Prices: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 29565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2005. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Macroeconomics 0505009, EconWPA.
  7. Ronen Bar-El & Teresa García-Muñoz & Shoshana Neuman & Yossef Tobol, 2010. "The Evolution of Secularization: Cultural Transmission, Religion and Fertility Theory, Simulations and Evidence," Working Papers 2010-10, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  8. Sourav Ray & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Mark Bergen & Daniel Levy, 2005. "Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2005-02, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  9. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2008. "Involuntary Integration in Public Education, Fertility and Human Capital," Working Papers 2008-07, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
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