IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Regression Tournament: A Novel Approach to Prediction Model Assessment

  • Adi Schnytzer


    (Bar-Ilan University)

  • Janez Šušteršič

    (University of Primorska)

Standard methods to assess the statistical quality of econometric models implicitly assume there is only one person in the world, namely the forecaster with her model(s), and that there exists an objective and independent reality to which the model predictions may be compared. However, on many occasions, the reality with which we compare our predictions and in which we take our actions is co-determined and changed constantly by actions taken by other actors based on their own models. We propose a new method, called a regression tournament, to assess the utility of forecasting models and taking these interactions into account. We present an empirical case of betting on Australian Rules Football matches where the most accurate predictive model does not yield the highest betting return, or, in our terms, does not win a regression tournament.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Working paper
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-10.

in new window

Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-10
Contact details of provider: Postal: Faculty of Social Sciences, Bar Ilan University 52900 Ramat-Gan
Phone: Phone: +972-3-5318345
Fax: +972-3-7384034
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Daniel Levy & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Georg Müller & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2010. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 172-198, 01.
  2. Sourav Ray & Haipeng Chen & Mark Bergen & Daniel Levy, 2005. "Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0503021, EconWPA.
  3. Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy, 2011. "Shrinking Goods and Sticky Prices: Theory and Evidence," Working Paper Series 17_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2005. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2005-06, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  5. Ravi Kanbur & Hillel Rapoport, 2005. "Migration selectivity and the evolution of spatial inequality," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 43-57, January.
  6. Young, Andrew & Higgins, Matthew & Levy, Daniel, 2007. "Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data," MPRA Paper 2714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2008. "Involuntary Integration in Public Education, Fertility and Human Capital," Working Papers 2008-07, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  8. Daniel Levy & Haipeng Allan Chen & Sourav Ray & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment "in the Small:" An Implication of Rational Inattention," Macroeconomics 0407012, EconWPA, revised 11 May 2005.
  9. Bar-El, Ronen & García-Muñoz, Teresa & Neuman, Shoshana & Tobol, Yossi, 2010. "The Evolution of Secularization: Cultural Transmission, Religion and Fertility Theory, Simulations and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4980, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.