IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bep/itfapp/1111.html

The Theoretical Link Between Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis Episodes

Author

Listed:
  • Malgorzata Sulimierska

    (Economics Department, University of Sussex)

Abstract

The paper investigates theoretical background if countries with unregulated capital flows are more vulnerable to currency crises. In order to solve this question properly the paper considers sequence, precondition of the Capital Account Liberalization process and different generation of currency crisis models. Furthermore, theoretical studies pointed that the speed and sequence of the CAL process needs to be adequate for the country financial development and financial liberalization. This paper was presented May 22, 2008, at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association meeting at Universidade Nova de Lisboa in Lisbon, Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "The Theoretical Link Between Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis Episodes," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1111, International Trade and Finance Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:bep:itfapp:1111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rene M. Stulz, 1999. "Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 7021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ethan Kaplan & Dani Rodrik, 2002. "Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 393-440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    4. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
    5. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-2.
    6. Mr. R. B. Johnston & Chris Ryan, 1994. "The Impact of Controlson Capital Movementson the Private Capital Accounts of Countries' Balance of Payments: Empirical Estimates and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 1994/078, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Elitzur, Ramy & Mintz, Jack, 1997. "Corrigendum to "Transfer pricing rules and corporate tax competition": [J. Public Economics, 60 (1996) 401-422]," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 287-287, May.
    8. Molina, Danielken & Roa, Monica, 2014. "The Effect of Credit on the Export Performance of Colombian Exporters," MPRA Paper 56137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Quinn, Dennis, 1997. "The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 531-551, September.
    10. Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia, 1999. "Large Capital Flows: A Survey of the Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 1999/017, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Christopher J. Neely, 1996. "The giant sucking sound: did NAFTA devour the Mexican peso?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jul), pages 33-48.
    12. Ajit Singh, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, Free Long-Term Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Economic Development," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 191-216, Spring.
    13. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio, 2007. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls, and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 241-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
    15. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 71-83, October.
    17. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
    18. Dooley, Michael P, 1996. "Capital Controls and Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 197-205, July.
    19. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    20. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April.
    21. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun.
    22. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Mr. Donald J Mathieson & Ms. Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1992. "Liberalization of the Capital Account: Experiences and Issues," IMF Working Papers 1992/046, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    26. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    27. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2006. "Currency Crises, Capital-Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 698-714, November.
    28. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    29. Michael P Devereux, 2007. "Taxes in the EU New Member States and the Location of Capital and Profit," Working Papers 0703, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    30. Ms. Inci Ötker & Mr. R. B. Johnston, 1999. "A Modernized Approach to Managing the Risks in Cross-Border Capital Movements," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/006, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Vicente Galbis, 1996. "Currency Convertibility and the Fund: Review and Prognosis," IMF Working Papers 1996/039, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Short-run pain, long-run gain : the effects of financial liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2912, The World Bank.
    33. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    34. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
    35. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    36. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    37. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
    38. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits?," NBER Working Papers 8908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1986. "Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 3-33, September.
    40. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    41. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    42. Francisco Gallego & Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 1999. "Capital Controls in Chile: Effective? Efficient?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 59, Central Bank of Chile.
    43. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-193, May.
    46. Hali Edison Carmen Reinhart, 2011. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand Book Title:Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172189-12.
    47. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-384, Oct.-Dec..
    48. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    50. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yazdani, Mahdi & Daryani, Elmira, 2021. "Output Loss from Sudden Stop of FDI and the Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 213-236, June.
    2. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2014. "Effectiveness of capital control, economic growth and animal spirit: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 7014, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. repec:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis - The Case of Central Eastern European Countries," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1140, International Trade and Finance Association.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    8. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    9. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    10. Yazdani, Mahdi & Daryani, Elmira, 2021. "Output Loss from Sudden Stop of FDI and the Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 213-236, June.
    11. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    12. Masahiro Kawai & Shinji Takagi, 2010. "A Survey of the Literature on Managing Capital Inflows," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Mario B. Lamberte (ed.), Managing Capital Flows, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. repec:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    15. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2011. "The illusive quest: Do international capital controls contribute to currency stability?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 59-70, January.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    17. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    18. Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Insurance and liquidity : panel evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3648, The World Bank.
    19. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Capital controls, capital flow contractions, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 814-840, September.
    20. Winston Moore, 2014. "Managing The Process Of Removing Capital Controls: What Does The Literature Suggest?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 209-237, April.
    21. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bep:itfapp:1111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itfaeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.