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Efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia

  • Ana María Iregui

    ()

  • Luis Fernando Melo V.

    ()

  • María Teresa Ramírez

    ()

En este artículo se explora empíricamente el vínculo entre la volatilidad y el desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real (TCR) con la actividad de las empresas en Colombia durante el período 2000-2011. Se analiza su efecto sobre las ventas externas, la productividad, la inversión y las ganancias de 4.871 empresas. Los resultados sugieren que la volatilidad de la TCR no afecta el desempeño de las firmas, con excepción de las ganancias, sobre las cuales tiene un efecto negativo, mientras que su desalineamiento tiene un efecto negativo y significativo sobre las ventas externas y las ganancias, sugiriendo que desequilibrios macroeconómicos podrían afectar la actividad económica de las firmas. Además, la deuda en moneda extranjera y su interacción con la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio no afectan el desempeño de las empresas. Sin embargo, la deuda en moneda corriente tiene un efecto negativo y significativo sobre el desempeño de las empresas, lo que podría sugerir que estos recursos de crédito se destinan a financiar los gastos corrientes de las firmas o que estas se encuentran sobre endeudadas.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 801.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:801
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