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On vector autoregressive modeling in space and time

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  • Valter Di Giacinto

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Despite the fact that it provides a potentially useful analytical tool, allowing for the joint modeling of dynamic interdependencies within a group of connected areas, until lately the VAR approach had received little attention in regional science and spatial economic analysis. This paper aims to contribute in this field by dealing with the issues of parameter identification and estimation and of structural impulse response analysis. In particular, there is a discussion of the adaptation of the recursive identification scheme (which represents one of the more common approaches in the time series VAR literature) to a space-time environment. Parameter estimation is subsequently based on the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method, a standard approach in structural VAR analysis. As a convenient tool to summarize the information conveyed by regional dynamic multipliers with a specific emphasis on the scope of spatial spillover effects, a synthetic space-time impulse response function (STIR) is introduced, portraying average effects as a function of displacement in time and space. Asymptotic confidence bands for the STIR estimates are also derived from bootstrap estimates of the standard errors. Finally, to provide a basic illustration of the methodology, the paper presents an application of a simple bivariate fiscal model fitted to data for Italian NUTS 2 regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Valter Di Giacinto, 2010. "On vector autoregressive modeling in space and time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 746, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_746_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 Mar 1998.
    2. Valter Di Giacinto, 2006. "A Generalized Space-Time ARMA Model with an Application to Regional Unemployment Analysis in Italy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(2), pages 159-198, April.
    3. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    5. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2007. "Spatial Vector Autoregressions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 167-196.
    6. Georges Bresson & Badi H. Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2007. "Panel unit root tests and spatial dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 339-360.
    7. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    8. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    9. Valter Di Giacinto, 2003. "Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: A Geographical SVAR Approach," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 313-341, July.
    10. Lastrapes, William D., 2005. "Estimating and identifying vector autoregressions under diagonality and block exogeneity restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 75-81, April.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Benkwitz, Alexander & L tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J rgen, 2001. "Comparison Of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses Of German Monetary Systems," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 81-100, February.
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    14. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
    15. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    16. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 603, European Central Bank.
    17. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcos Herrera & Jesús Mur & Manuel Ruiz, 2016. "Detecting causal relationships between spatial processes," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 577-594, August.
    2. Miguel A. Márquez & Julián Ramajo & Geoffrey JD. Hewings, 2015. "Regional growth and spatial spillovers: Evidence from an SpVAR for the Spanish regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94, pages 1-18, November.
    3. Valter Di Giacinto, 2013. "The dynamics of knowledge production in European regions," ERSA conference papers ersa13p543, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Herrera Gómez, Marcos & Ruiz Marín, Manuel & Mur Lacambra, Jesús, 2014. "Testing Spatial Causality in Cross-section Data," MPRA Paper 56678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Marcel Probst & Caspar Sauter, 2015. "CO2 Emissions and Greenhouse Gas Policy Stringency - An Empirical Assessment," IRENE Working Papers 15-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2013. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Regional Systems: A Multiregional Spatial Vector Autoregressive Model for Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa13p159, European Regional Science Association.
    8. repec:elg:eechap:14395_7 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Valter Di Giacinto, 2011. "Foreign trade, home linkages and the spatial transmission of economic fluctuations in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 827, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural VAR model; spatial econometrics; identification; space-time impulse response analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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