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Foreign trade, home linkages and the spatial transmission of economic fluctuations in Italy

  • Valter Di Giacinto

    ()

    (Bank of Italy)

During the recent global recession both the export-oriented northern Italian regions and those in the far less open South experienced a sharp decline in economic activity. One of the possible explanations is the existence of strong domestic linkages propagating foreign demand shocks from North to South. To assess the scope of the spatial transmission of global and local disturbances across Italian regions, in this paper we specify and estimate a bivariate structural spatial VAR model featuring GDP and foreign exports as endogenous variables. A standard gravity equation approach is implemented to model unobserved domestic regional trade flows, while regional sales on foreign markets are related to global trade fluctuations and local shocks to competitiveness, broken down into a national and an idiosyncratic component. In line with expectations, strong domestic linkages are uncovered on the basis of model estimation results. The latter show that even less export-oriented Italian regions, although broadly unaffected on impact, may eventually experience a sharp output decline following a fall in global trade of the size observed in the recent recession.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0827/en_tema_827.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 827.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_827_11
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

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  1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  2. Valter Giacinto, 2010. "On vector autoregressive modeling in space and time," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 125-154, June.
  3. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
  5. Valter Di Giacinto, 2006. "A Generalized Space-Time ARMA Model with an Application to Regional Unemployment Analysis in Italy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(2), pages 159-198, April.
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