IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1103_17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An indicator of inflation expectations anchoring

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Natoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Laura Sigalotti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We compare the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom, focusing on the post-crisis period. First of all, we estimate a set of measures of average and tail correlation using inflation swaps and options, as proposed by Natoli and Sigalotti (2016). To quantify the degree of anchoring, we also propose a new indicator based on the results of a logistic regression, obtained by measuring the odds that strong negative shocks to short-term expectations are connected to large declines in long-term expectations. The results reveal an increase in the risk of de-anchoring during the last quarter of 2014 for the euro area. While showing a significant reduction after the peak, our de-anchoring indicator remains high and volatile for 2015 and 2016. Inflation expectations in the US and the UK are instead found to be firmly anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2017. "An indicator of inflation expectations anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1103, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1103_17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2017/2017-1103/en_tema_1103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sara Cecchetti & Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2015. "Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1025, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Marcello Miccoli & Stefano Neri, 2019. "Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 651-662, February.
    3. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    4. Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2016. "The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 321, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till, 2015. "Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 6-9.
    6. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
    7. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    8. Taboga, Marco, 2016. "Option-implied probability distributions: How reliable? How jagged?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 453-469.
    9. Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2018. "Tail Co-movement in Inflation Expectations as an Indicator of Anchoring," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 35-71, January.
    10. Grothe, Magdalena & Lejsgaard Autrup, Søren, 2014. "Economic surprises and inflation expectations: Has anchoring of expectations survived the crisis?," Working Paper Series 1671, European Central Bank.
    11. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    3. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. James Yetman, 2020. "The pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 55-66, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    6. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    7. Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2020. "Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 72-91.
    8. Antonio M. Conti & Elisa Guglielminetti & Marianna Riggi, 2019. "Labour productivity and the wageless recovery," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Juan Angel García & Sebastian E. V. Werner, 2021. "Inflation News and Euro-Area Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 1-60, September.
    10. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Henckel, Timo & Menzies, Gordon D. & Moffatt, Peter & Zizzo, Daniel J., 2019. "Three dimensions of central bank credibility and inferential expectations: The Euro zone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 294-308.
    13. Cristina Conflitti & Riccardo Cristadoro, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 423, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Laura Bartiloro & Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2017. "What does the heterogeneity of the inflation expectations of Italian firms tell us?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 414, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Luigi Bonatti Roberto Tamborini & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Is High Inflation the New Challenge for Central Banks?," DEM Working Papers 2021/14, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Andrea Fracasso & Rocco Probo, 2017. "When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1481-1485, November.
    3. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    6. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    7. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    8. Strohsal, Till & Melnick, Rafi & Nautz, Dieter, 2016. "The time-varying degree of inflation expectations anchoring," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 62-71.
    9. James Yetman, 2020. "Pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 895, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Richhild Moessner & Előd Takáts, 2020. "How well-anchored are long-term inflation expectations?," BIS Working Papers 869, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    14. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    15. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    18. Nautz, Dieter & Pagenhardt, Laura & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-115.
    19. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    20. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    21. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; anchoring; inflation swaps; inflation options; tail comovement; odds ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1103_17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.