IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_321_16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Ines Buono

    () (Bank f Italy)

  • Sara Formai

    () (Bank f Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the degree of anchoring in inflation expectations for different advanced economies using data from professional forecasters' surveys. We define expectations as anchored when movements in short-run expectations do not trigger movements in expectations at longer horizons. Using time-varying parameter regressions, we provide evidence that anchoring has varied noticeably across economies and over time. In particular, we find that starting from the second half of 2008, inflation expectations in the euro area, unlike in the US and in the UK, have shown signs of a de-anchoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2016. "The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 321, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_321_16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0321/QEF_321_16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    2. Sara Cecchetti & Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2015. "Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1025, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 851, European Central Bank.
    5. Stephan Danninger & Alina Carare, 2008. "Inflation Smoothing and the Modest Effect of VAT in Germany," IMF Working Papers 08/175, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jjieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:53-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrea Fracasso & Rocco Probo, 2017. "When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1481-1485, November.
    3. Hattori, Masazumi & Yetman, James, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-68.
    4. Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring," Working Paper Series 1996, European Central Bank.
    5. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anchoring; inflation expectations; nonparametric estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_321_16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.