IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_265_15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Miccoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Stefano Neri

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Since 2013 the inflation rate in the euro area has fallen steadily, reaching all-time lows at the end of 2014. Market-based measures of inflation expectations (such as inflation swaps) have also declined to extremely low levels, which suggests increasing concern about the credibility of the ECB in maintaining price stability. Inflation releases have often surprised analysts on the downside. Our analysis shows that market-based inflation expectations, at medium-term maturities, are affected by these �surprises�, over and above the impact of changing macroeconomic conditions and oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Miccoli & Stefano Neri, 2015. "Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 265, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_265_15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0265/QEF_265.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2014. "Surprise! Euro area inflation has fallen," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 237, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    2. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. James Yetman, 2020. "The pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 55-66, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Petr Polak & Filip Novotny, 2020. "Consumer and industrial prices in 2020 - the year of the coronavirus," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - December 2020, pages 12-18, Czech National Bank.
    5. Speck, Christian, 2017. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1998, European Central Bank.
    6. Ekananda, Mahjus, 2022. "Role of macroeconomic determinants on the natural resource commodity prices: Indonesia futures volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Locarno, Alberto & Delle Monache, Davide & Busetti, Fabio & Gerali, Andrea, 2017. "Trust, but verify. De-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1994, European Central Bank.
    8. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2017. "An indicator of inflation expectations anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1103, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Juan Angel García & Sebastian E. V. Werner, 2021. "Inflation News and Euro-Area Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 1-60, September.
    13. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    14. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    15. Stefano Neri & Guido Bulligan & Sara Cecchetti & Francesco Corsello & Andrea Papetti & Marianna Riggi & Concetta Rondinelli & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 712, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2019. "The non-standard monetary policy measures of the ECB: motivations, effectiveness and risks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Andrea Fracasso & Rocco Probo, 2017. "When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1481-1485, November.
    18. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    19. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "Phillips Curve and output expectations: New perspectives from the Euro Zone," DEM Working Papers 2020/6, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    22. James Yetman, 2020. "Pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 895, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.
    24. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.
    25. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narek Ghazaryan, 2014. "Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia," Working Papers 3, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, revised Dec 2015.
    2. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    3. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.
    4. Ali Alichi & Hayk Avetisyan & Douglas Laxton & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan & Hou Wang & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan, 2019. "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis," Working Papers 9, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, revised Aug 2019.
    5. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2014. "Updating the euro area Phillips curve: the slope has increased," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/2014, Bank of Finland.
    6. R. Cezar & A. Duguet & G. Gaulier & V. Vicard, 2017. "Competition for global value added: domestic and export market shares," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 36, january..
    7. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2014. "Updating the euro area Phillips curve: the slope has increased," Research Discussion Papers 31/2014, Bank of Finland.
    8. Patrick Blagrave & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2015. "A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 2015/079, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Della Posta, Pompeo & Tamborini, Roberto, 2023. "Does an inflation target zone help or hinder price stability?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. S. Avouyi-Dovi. & R. Lecat. & C. O’Donnell. & B. Bureau. & J.-P. Villetelle., 2016. "Corporate loans at particularly low rates in France," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 41, pages 27-39, spring.
    11. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    12. S. Humbertclaude. & R. Lecat. & F. Monteil., 2016. "France’s national economic wealth declined by 1.8% in 2014," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 41, pages 41-49, spring.
    13. Francesco D�Amuri & Silvia Fabiani & Roberto Sabbatini & Raffaele Tartaglia Polcini & Fabrizio Venditti & Eliana Viviano & Roberta Zizza, 2015. "Wages and prices in Italy during the crisis: the firms� perspective," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 289, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Luigi Bonatti Roberto Tamborini & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Is High Inflation the New Challenge for Central Banks?," DEM Working Papers 2021/14, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.
    17. Roberto Tamborini, 2023. "Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a true consumption function. The Eurozone as an inflation target zone," DEM Working Papers 2023/1, Department of Economics and Management.
    18. Ali Alichi & Olivier Bizimana & Silvia Domit & Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Kadir Tanyeri & Hou Wang & Fan Zhang, 2015. "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2015/253, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "Phillips Curve and output expectations: New perspectives from the Euro Zone," DEM Working Papers 2020/6, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. N. Berardi. & E. Gautier., 2016. "Adjustments in consumer prices in France in periods of low inflation," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 41, pages 51-65, spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation expectations; inflation swap contracts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_265_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.