Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach
This paper exhaustively analyses the recent decline of international trade elasticities to output growth. We extend an empirical model of import demand functions to account not only for transitory factors, such as relative prices and import intensity-adjusted measures of demand (I-O Tables), but also for habitually neglected permanent factors such as protectionism, vertical integration (i.e. Global Value Chains) and foreign direct investment (FDI). Dealing with a non-stationary heteregenous panel of 27 countries, we estimate a panel Error Correction Model from 1960 to 2015 in order to break down world trade elasticities. Our main fi ndings evidence: i) the presence of panel (cointegrating) structural changes in the trade-to-GDP relationship in 2000 and 2009, private consumption being a source of disruption; ii) although investment and exports are the most sensitive, import-intensive components of demand, this is far from being transitory, which is clearly weighing on the current slowdown; iii) the relevant contribution of GVCs shows a procyclical pattern, questioning the permanent nature of the current levelling-off of vertical integration processes. The lack of progress in reducing import tariffs and the usual discarded, complementary relationship between FDI and imports have a residual role. All in all, our results have substantial policy implications, as they reinforce the idea of a historical break towards a new ‘normal’ trading phase.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2016|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.bde.es/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Keith Head, 2003.
"Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 980-994, June.
- Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Keith Head, 2002. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment," NBER Working Papers 8929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Keith Head, 2002. "Estimating The Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-13, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Mar 2002.
- Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
- Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Westerlund Joakim, 2006. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Research Memorandum 056, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Gangnes, Byron S. & Ma, Alyson C. & Van Assche, Ari, 2014. "Global value chains and trade elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 482-486.
- Byron S. Gangnes & Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 201401, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Byron S. Gangnes & Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2014-2, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
- Byron Gangnes & Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Trade Elasticities," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-31, CIRANO.
- Ferrantino, Michael J. & Taglioni, Daria, 2014. "Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 138, pages 1-6, March.
- Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2015. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross‐Section Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, 01.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International Supply Chains and Trade Elasticity in Times of Global Crisis," MPRA Paper 20478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Jarkko Jaaskela & Thomas Mathews, 2015. "Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-46, September.
- Feenstra, Robert C., 2003. "A homothetic utility function for monopolistic competition models, without constant price elasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 79-86, January.
- Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2015. "The Global Trade Slowdown; Cyclical or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 15/6, International Monetary Fund.
- Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina & Mattoo,Aaditya & Ruta,Michele, 2015. "The global trade slowdown: cyclical or structural ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7158, The World Bank.
- Irwin, Douglas A., 2002. "Long-run trends in world trade and income," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 89-100, March.
- Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 269-267.
- Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1216, OECD Publishing.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
- Yeaple, Stephen & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2004. "Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," Scholarly Articles 3229098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
- Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2011. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09," NBER Working Papers 17712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ines Buono & Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 2013. "Trade elasticity and vertical specialisation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 924, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Dieppe, Alistair & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank.
- Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-116, February.
- Alessandro Borin & Michele Mancini, 2015. "Follow the value added: bilateral gross export accounting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1026, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
- Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse," NBER Working Papers 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-1786, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.