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Trade crisis and recovery : restructuring of global value chains

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  • Milberg, William
  • Winkler, Deborah

Abstract

The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?

Suggested Citation

  • Milberg, William & Winkler, Deborah, 2010. "Trade crisis and recovery : restructuring of global value chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5294, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sumangala Damodaran, 2013. "New strategies of industrial organization: outsourcing and consolidation in the mobile telecom sector in India," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series ctg-2013-32, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
    2. Fan, Ying, 2011. "Services Policy Reform in the People’s Republic of China: Before and After the Global Financial Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 304, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Terheggen, Anne, 2010. "The new kid in the forest: the impact of China's resource demand on Gabon's tropical timber value chain," MPRA Paper 37982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Éltető, Andrea, 2014. "A visegrádi országok kereskedelme Ázsiával - a globális termelés lenyomata
      [The trade of the Visegrád countries with Asia - a manifestation of global production]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 586-608.
    5. Cornelia Staritz, 2011. "Making the Cut? Low-Income Countries and the Global Clothing Value Chain in a Post-Quota and Post-Crisis World," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2547.
    6. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Marisol Velazquez, 2014. "Commercialization and consumption of coffee in Mexico," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1681, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Bernhardt, Thomas, 2014. "How promising is South-South trade as a contributor to economic development in Asia and South America? Insights from estimating income elasticities of import demand," MPRA Paper 56413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Richard Baldwin, 2013. "Trade and Industrialization after Globalization's Second Unbundling: How Building and Joining a Supply Chain Are Different and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 165-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Victor Kummritz, 2015. "Global Value Chains: Benefiting the Domestic Economy?," IHEID Working Papers 02-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Wenbin Huang & Andreas Wilkes & Xiufang Sun & Anne Terheggen, 2013. "Who is importing forest products from Africa to China? An analysis of implications for initiatives to enhance legality and sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 339-354, April.
    12. John Pickles, 2012. "South African horticulture: opportunities and challenges for economic and social upgrading in value chains," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series ctg-2012-13, BWPI, The University of Manchester.

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets; Trade Policy;

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