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Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share?

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  • Andrew Glover
  • Jacob Short

Abstract

We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. The elasticity of substitution is identified from the cross-country correlation between trends in the labor share and (a proxy for) the rental rate of capital. Trends in labor's share and the rental rate are weakly correlated across countries, and inversely related in most samples. Previous cross-country estimates of this elasticity were substantially greater than one, which we show was partly due to omitted variable bias: earlier studies used investment prices alone to proxy for the rental rate, whereas the growth model relates rental rates to investment prices and consumption growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Glover & Jacob Short, 2019. "Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share?," Staff Working Papers 19-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:19-3
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    Cited by:

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    3. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2021. "Demographic changes and the labor income share," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Barış Kaymak & Immo Schott, 2023. "Corporate Tax Cuts and the Decline in the Manufacturing Labor Share," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2371-2408, November.
    5. Süssmuth, Bernd & Irmen, Andreas & Heer, Burkhard, 2020. "Taxation, Automation Capital, and the Functional Income Distribution," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Alex Chernoff & Gabriela Galassi, 2023. "Digitalization: Labour Markets," Discussion Papers 2023-16, Bank of Canada.
    7. Arif, Imran, 2021. "Productive knowledge, economic sophistication, and labor share," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    9. Burkhard Heer & Andreas Irmen & Bernd Süssmuth, 2023. "Explaining the decline in the US labor share: taxation and automation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1481-1528, December.
    10. Matteo G. Richiardi & Luis Valenzuela, 2024. "Firm heterogeneity and the aggregate labour share," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 38(1), pages 66-101, March.
    11. Vahagn Jerbashian, 2022. "On the Elasticity of Substitution between Labor and ICT and IP Capital and Traditional Capital," CESifo Working Paper Series 9989, CESifo.
    12. Kausik, B.N., 2023. "Cognitive Aging and Labor Share," MPRA Paper 118406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kostarakos, Ilias, 2020. "Determinants of the (non-Housing) Labour Income Share in the EU," Papers WP693, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & Akos Valentinyi, 2019. "Growth and the Kaldor Facts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(4), pages 259-276.
    15. Pengfei Zhang, 2023. "Endogenous capital-augmenting R&D, intersectoral labor reallocation, and the movement of the labor share," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 1-36, September.
    16. Andrew Glover & Jacob Short, 2020. "Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor's Share," BIS Working Papers 874, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Xiao, De & Yu, Fan & Guo, Chenhao, 2023. "The impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share: Based on an empirical method of combining PSM with staggered DID," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. R. Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2017. "Labor's Share, the Firm's Market Power and TFP," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    19. Baek, Seungjin & Jeong, Deokjae, 2023. "Factors Influencing Labor Share: Automation, Task Innovation, and Elasticity of Substitution," MPRA Paper 118730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Antonio Cutanda, 2022. "The elasticity of substitution and labor-saving innovations in the Spanish regions," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 49(2 Year 20), pages 123-144, December.
    21. Benjamin Bridgman & Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, 2022. "Public enterprise and the rise and fall of labor share," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 320-350, January.
    22. Li, Bing & Liu, Chang & Sun, Stephen Teng, 2021. "Do corporate income tax cuts decrease labor share? Regression discontinuity evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    23. Song, Eunbi, 2021. "What drives labor share change? Evidence from Korean industries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 370-385.
    24. Gonzalez, Ignacio & Trivin, Pedro, 2019. "The Global Rise of Asset Prices and the Decline of the Labor Share," MPRA Paper 94587, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm dynamics; International topics; Labour markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

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