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Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada

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  • Gilles Bérubé
  • Denise Côté

Abstract

This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most important determinants of the trend in the personal savings rate, as measured in the National Income and Expenditure Accounts (NIEA). The results also suggest that the rapid decline in the NIEA personal savings rate in recent years largely reflects a change in the trend component of the savings rate, rather than a transitory departure from the trend. In the current environment of low inflation and government fiscal balances moving into surpluses, the trend NIEA savings rate could remain low. When using a measure of the personal savings rate based on the change in the net worth position of the personal sector (as estimated in the National Balance Sheet Accounts [NBSA]), the trend is determined by the real interest rate, expected inflation, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income. However, the statistical evidence supporting this long-run relationship is not as conclusive as that for the NIEA savings rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Bérubé & Denise Côté, 2000. "Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 00-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:00-3
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    2. Said Edaich & Roman Śmietanski, 2020. "Islamic Microfinance Model and the Hypothesis of Poverty Alleviation," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, January -.
    3. Mevlüt TATLIYER, 2017. "Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from TurkeyAbstract: This paper attempts to ascertain the determinants of private saving level in Turkey. We implemented OLS estimations and constructed ," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    4. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    5. Anderson, C. Leigh & Nevitte, Neil, 2006. "Teach your children well: Values of thrift and saving," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 247-261, April.
    6. Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay & François Vaillancourt, 2011. "Le bilan des particuliers au Canada : évolution et analyse," CIRANO Project Reports 2011rp-17, CIRANO.
    7. Brian O'Reilly & Mylène Levac, 2000. "Inflation and the Tax System in Canada: An Exploratory Partial-Equilibrium Analysis," Staff Working Papers 00-18, Bank of Canada.
    8. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Takao Fujii, 2012. "Substitutability of Savings by Sectors: OECD Experiences," Discussion Papers 1215, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic demand and components;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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