IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/00-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Bérubé
  • Denise Côté

Abstract

This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most important determinants of the trend in the personal savings rate, as measured in the National Income and Expenditure Accounts (NIEA). The results also suggest that the rapid decline in the NIEA personal savings rate in recent years largely reflects a change in the trend component of the savings rate, rather than a transitory departure from the trend. In the current environment of low inflation and government fiscal balances moving into surpluses, the trend NIEA savings rate could remain low. When using a measure of the personal savings rate based on the change in the net worth position of the personal sector (as estimated in the National Balance Sheet Accounts [NBSA]), the trend is determined by the real interest rate, expected inflation, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income. However, the statistical evidence supporting this long-run relationship is not as conclusive as that for the NIEA savings rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Bérubé & Denise Côté, 2000. "Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 00-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:00-3
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2000-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2000-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/845/files/wp00-3.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/swp-2000-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roger S. Smith, 1990. "Factors Affecting Saving, Policy Tools, and Tax Reform: A Review," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 1-70, March.
    2. David N. Weil, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81.
    3. Tony S. Wirjanto, 1995. "Aggregate Consumption Behaviour and Liquidity Constraints: The Canadian Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1135-1152, November.
    4. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-577, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Lawrence Summers & Chris Carroll, 1987. "Why Is U.S. National Saving So Low?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 607-642.
    7. Phelim Boyle & John Murray, 1979. "Social Security Wealth and Private Saving in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 456-468, August.
    8. James M. Poterba & Steven F. Venti, 1998. "Personal Retirement Saving Programs and Asset Accumulation: Reconciling the Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 23-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    10. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
    13. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    14. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & King, Mervyn, 1984. "Pension wealth and household savings: Tests of robustness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 115-139.
    15. John Sabelhaus, 1997. "Public Policy and Saving in the United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 253-275, May.
    16. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
    17. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    18. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    19. repec:bla:econom:v:50:y:1983:i:197:p:63-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1988. "Intergenerational Transfers and Savings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 41-58, Spring.
    21. Diamond, P. A., 1977. "A framework for social security analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 275-298, December.
    22. Carroll, Chris & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Why have private savings rates in the United States and Canada diverged?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-279, September.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    24. Christopher Ragan, 1994. "Progressive Income Taxes and the Substitution Effect of RRSPs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 43-57, February.
    25. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    26. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    27. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
    28. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    29. Marcel G. Dagenais, 1992. "Measuring Personal Savings, Consumption, and Disposable Income in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 681-707, August.
    30. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    31. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    32. Poterba, James M. (ed.), 1994. "Public Policies and Household Saving," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226676180, December.
    33. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    34. Mr. Jose De Gregorio, 1993. "Savings, Growth and Capital Markets Imperfections: The Case of Borrowing Constraints," IMF Working Papers 1993/031, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Paquet, A., 1994. "A Guide to Applied Modern Macroeconometrics," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1994-5, Department of Finance Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nagi Bairamli & Vassilis Kostoglou, 2010. "The Role of Savings in the Economic Development of the Republic of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 3(2), pages 99-110, December.
    2. Said Edaich & Roman Śmietanski, 2020. "Islamic Microfinance Model and the Hypothesis of Poverty Alleviation," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, ejme_v3_i.
    3. Mevlüt TATLIYER, 2017. "Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from TurkeyAbstract: This paper attempts to ascertain the determinants of private saving level in Turkey. We implemented OLS estimations and constructed ," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    4. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    5. Anderson, C. Leigh & Nevitte, Neil, 2006. "Teach your children well: Values of thrift and saving," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 247-261, April.
    6. Brian O'Reilly & Mylène Levac, 2000. "Inflation and the Tax System in Canada: An Exploratory Partial-Equilibrium Analysis," Staff Working Papers 00-18, Bank of Canada.
    7. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Takao Fujii, 2012. "Substitutability of Savings by Sectors: OECD Experiences," Discussion Papers 1215, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay & François Vaillancourt, 2011. "Le bilan des particuliers au Canada : évolution et analyse," CIRANO Project Reports 2011rp-17, CIRANO.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernheim, B. Douglas, 2002. "Taxation and saving," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1173-1249, Elsevier.
    2. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    3. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    5. Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 1966. "The Effects Of Seasonal Adjustment Linear Filters On Cointegrating Equations: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Economic Research Papers 272847, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    6. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, November.
    7. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    9. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    10. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    11. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    12. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    15. Gordon de Brouwer & Irene Ng & Robert Subbaraman, 1993. "The Demand for Money in Australia: New Tests on an Old Topic," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9314, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
    17. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Rehman & Nurul Mahdzan, 2014. "Linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1511-1535, May.
    18. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    19. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey," International Trade 0503005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa, 2017. "Okun’s law: evidence of 13 selected developed countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 297-310, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:00-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.