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Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ron Smith

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Gylfi Zoega

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

We consider the hypothesis that a common factor, global expected returns, drives unemployment and investment in 21 OECD countries over the period 1960-2002. We investigate this hypothesis using a panel-factor augmented-vector autoregression (FAVAR). We first estimate the common factors of unemployment and investment by principal components and show that the first principal component of unemployment is almost identical to that of investment and that they both show the pattern one would expect of a rate of return as indicated by long interest rates. We then estimate panel FAVARs to measure the dynamic impact of the global factors. Investment appears to drive unemployment and – allowing for a moving natural rate of unemployment driven by the global factor – produces much faster adjustment by unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2005. "Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0524, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0524
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    File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0524.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2007. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 850-878, April.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    3. Gianluca Lagana & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, September.
    4. Nickell, Stephen, 2003. "A picture of European unemployment: success and failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20039, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Gomes, Joao & Greenwood, Jeremy & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 109-152, August.
    6. Malley, Jim & Moutos, Thomas, 2001. " Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Tale of Two "Continents."," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 79-99, March.
    7. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    9. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2004. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Working Paper Series 312, European Central Bank.
    10. Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 2002. "The Modigliani 'puzzle'," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 437-442, August.
    11. Walter Y. Oi, 1962. "Labor as a Quasi-Fixed Factor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 538-538.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    2. Roberto Bande Ramudo & Manuel Fernández Grela & Mª Dolores Riveiro García, 2011. "Consumption, Saving, Investment, and Unemployment. SVAR Tests of the Effects of Changes in the Consumption-Saving Pattern," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0045, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; unemployment; principal components.;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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