IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Twin-Peaks - What the Knowledge-Based Approach Can Say about the Dynamics of the World Income Distribution

One of the most recently observed stylised facts in the field of economic growth is the persistent bimodal shape of the world income distribution.. Of course, some theoretical explanations for this new stylised fact already have been provided by neoclassical growth theory within a maximising framework. Although innovation and technology are recognised as being the driving forces behind growth processes, these models maintain the restrictive assumption of a rational acting representative agent. In this paper we draw on a synergetic approach of evolutionary economics. In the model, the countries' productivity development is depicted as a sequence of relative technological levels and the movement from one level to the next higher one is governed by stochastic transition rates. The motivation for these transition rates is based on the knowledge-based approach of evolutionary economics, thereby taking into account depleting technological opportunities, the effects of technological infrastructure and permanent technological obsolescence due to an ubiquitous scientific progress. With this model we are able to show how a persistent bimodal distribution - the twin peaks - endogenously emerges via self-organisation. This simulated distribution matches well with the kernel density plot, calculated for GDP per worker data relative to the GDP per worker in the USA over the period 1960-90 for a sample of 104 countries. Both the empirical and theoretical results show an evolution of the density function toward bimodality with a decreasing number of countries with low relative productivity levels and an increasing number of countries with high relative productivity levels, indicating a prevalent catching-up during the period of investigation. However, the separation of both groups of countries is getting more significant over time and therefore further catching-up is expected to become increasingly difficult in the future.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut/paper/189.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 189.

as
in new window

Length: pages
Date of creation: Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0189
Contact details of provider: Postal: Universitaetsstrasse 16, D-86159 Augsburg, Germany
Phone: +49 821 598 4060
Fax: +49 821 598 4217
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sahal, Devendra, 1985. "Technological guideposts and innovation avenues," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 61-82, April.
  2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January.
  4. Justman, Moshe & Teubal, Morris, 1995. "Technological infrastructure policy (TIP): Creating capabilities and building markets," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-281, March.
  5. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Paapaa, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K., 1998. "Distribution and mobility of wealth of nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1269-1293, July.
  8. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
  9. Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 1996. "Multiple steady states, indeterminacy, and cycles in a basic model of endogenous growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 79-99, February.
  10. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-55, July.
  11. Dosi, Giovanni, 1982. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
  12. Romer, P.M., 1988. "Capital Accumulation In The Theory Of Long Run Growth," RCER Working Papers 123, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Charles I. Jones, 1997. "On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 19-36, Summer.
  14. Jens Kaüger & Uwe Cantner & Horst Hanusch, 2000. "Total factor productivity, the east Asian miracle, and the world production frontier," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 111-136, March.
  15. Cantner, Uwe & Pyka, Andreas, 1998. "Technological evolution -- an analysis within the knowledge-based approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 85-107, March.
  16. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1995. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
  18. Klevorick, Alvin K. & Levin, Richard C. & Nelson, Richard R. & Winter, Sidney G., 1995. "On the sources and significance of interindustry differences in technological opportunities," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 185-205, March.
  19. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  20. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  21. Nelson, Richard R & Pack, Howard, 1999. "The Asian Miracle and Modern Growth Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 416-36, July.
  22. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  23. Eliasson, Gunnar, 1988. "The Firm as a Competent Team," Working Paper Series 207, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised Feb 1990.
  24. Giovanni Dosi & Christopher Freeman & Richard Nelson & Gerarld Silverberg & Luc Soete (ed.), 1988. "Technical Change and Economic Theory," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1988, August.
  25. Freeman, Chris, 1994. "The Economics of Technical Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 463-514, October.
  26. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
  27. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  28. Cantner, Uwe & Pyka, Andreas, 1998. "Absorbing Technological Spillovers: Simulations in an Evolutionary Framework," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 369-97, June.
  29. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-96, September.
  30. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  31. Eliasson, Gunnar, 1990. "The firm as a competent team," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 275-298, June.
  32. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Albrecht Bossert)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.