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Эмпирическая оценка бюджетных мультипликаторов текущих и капитальных расходов для Казахстана // Empirical assessment of budget multipliers for current and capital expenditures in Kazakhstan

Author

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  • Букенов Амантай // Bukenov Аmantay

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

В данной работе оценивается влияние государственных расходов на экономическую активность Казахстана. Государственные расходы разделены на текущие и капитальные с целью выявления различий в их макроэкономическом воздействии. Для идентификации фискальных шоков применяется метод Бланшара-Перотти (2002) в рамках структурной VAR-модели, после чего импульсные отклики оцениваются с использованием метода локальных проекций. На основе полученных значений рассчитываются кумулятивные фискальные мультипликаторы. Результаты показывают, что текущие расходы оказывают более быстрый, но ограниченный эффект на выпуск, тогда как капитальные расходы формируют более высокий мультипликативный эффект, достигающий максимума в среднесрочной перспективе. Выводы исследования подчёркивают целесообразность смещения фискальной политики в сторону увеличения доли капитальных расходов как ключевого инструмента долгосрочного экономического роста в условиях сырьевой экономики. // This paper evaluates the impact of government spending on Kazakhstan's economic activity. Government expenditures are divided into current and capital expenditures in order to identify differences in their macroeconomic impact. To identify fiscal shocks, the Blanchard-Perotti (2002) method is used within the framework of the structural VAR model, after which the impulse responses are estimated using the local projection method. Cumulative fiscal multipliers are calculated based on the values obtained. The results show that current expenditures have a faster but limited effect on output, while capital expenditures generate a higher multiplier effect, reaching a maximum in the medium term. The conclusions of the study emphasize the expediency of shifting fiscal policy towards increasing the share of capital expenditures as a key tool for long-term economic growth in a commodity-based economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Букенов Амантай // Bukenov Аmantay, 2026. "Эмпирическая оценка бюджетных мультипликаторов текущих и капитальных расходов для Казахстана // Empirical assessment of budget multipliers for current and capital expenditures in Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2026-3, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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