Un external compact per rilanciare l'Europa
La crisi dell’Eurozona è ormai certificata dalla sua performance estremamente deludente in seguito allo shock esterno provocato dalla crisi dei subprime. La richiesta di un ridisegno delle regole è unanime, e in parte già accolta dalle stesse istituzioni europee. La diagnosi sulle cause della crisi è largamente condivisa dalla letteratura scientifica e dalle istituzioni multilaterali, e vede la causa nell’eccesso di indebitamento privato estero intra-Eurozona. In questo articolo sosteniamo che se questa diagnosi è corretta, allora il ridisegno delle regole europee deve partire da un cambio radicale di prospettiva, che parta dalla tutela della domanda interna nel Mercato Unico, anziché dalla rincorsa della domanda estera fra i mercati nazionali dei paesi membri, e riconosca il ruolo ineludibile della flessibilità del cambio come strumento di enforcement degli accordi economici intrapresi, e come strumento di signaling, essenziale ai mercati per assicurare una corretta allocazione delle risorse finanziarie.
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