IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/n13413/285795.html

A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports

Author

Listed:
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Karali, Berna

Abstract

The question of report value has been unsettled in the literature with results varying somewhat across studies and across reports. We employ two nonparametric tests to investigate the potential information value of USDA crop and livestock reports. If the daily returns on futures contracts differ on days with report releases when compared to non-announcement days for a sizeable number of commodities, we consider the report to contain valuable information. Results indicate value in five of the USDA reports investigated, with six other reports showing little or no information value in the markets examined. Most of our results confirm and add robustness to earlier results, but there are some differences both for certain reports and certain commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Karali, Berna, 2013. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," 2013 Conference, April 22-23, 2013, St. Louis, Missouri 285795, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13413:285795
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285795/files/Dorfman_Karali_NCCC-134_2013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285795?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas L. Mann & Richard J. Dowen, 1996. "Are hog and pig reports informative?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 273-287, May.
    2. T. Randall Fortenbery & Daniel A. Sumner, 1993. "The effects of USDA reports in futures and options markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 157-173, April.
    3. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    5. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2001. "The Value Of Usda Outlook Information: An Investigation Using Event Study Analysis," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18948, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G., 1994. "A generalization of the non-parametric Henriksson-Merton test of market timing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 1-7.
    8. Andrew M. McKenzie, 2008. "Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 351-366.
    9. Schnake, Kristin N. & Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2012. "The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15, August.
    10. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    11. repec:cup:jagaec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:89-103_6 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Ran & Isengildina-Massa, Olga Isengildina- & Sharp, Julia L., 2014. "Quantifying Public and Private Information Effects on the Cotton Market," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285815, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dorfmann, Jeffrey & Karali, Berna, 2015. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), pages 1-20.
    2. Ying, Jiahui & Chen, Yu & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2017. "Is the Value of USDA Announcement Effects Declining over Time?," 2017 Conference, April 24-25, 2017, St. Louis, Missouri 285877, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, "undated". "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    5. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Xie, Ran & Isengildina-Massa, Olga Isengildina- & Sharp, Julia L., 2014. "Quantifying Public and Private Information Effects on the Cotton Market," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285815, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(01), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    10. Karali, Berna & Park, ChangKeun, 2010. "Do USDA Announcements Affect the Correlations Across Commodity Futures Returns?," 2010 Conference, April 19-20, 2010, St. Louis, Missouri 285321, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    11. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "The Reaction of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets to USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142491, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    14. Lusk, Jayson L., "undated". "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    15. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    16. Brooks, Kathleen & Mattos, Fabio, 2014. "How Do Agricultural Futures Prices Respond To New Information About Drought Conditions?," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285821, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    17. Milacek, Trent T. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2013. "How Much Would It Be Worth to Know the WASDE Report In Advance?," 2013 Conference, April 22-23, 2013, St. Louis, Missouri 285789, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    18. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    19. Andrew M. McKenzie & Jessica L. Darby, 2017. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 552-568, September.
    20. Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
    21. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:n13413:285795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.