IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/n13414/285821.html

How Do Agricultural Futures Prices Respond To New Information About Drought Conditions?

Author

Listed:
  • Brooks, Kathleen
  • Mattos, Fabio

Abstract

This study tests whether information provided by the U.S. Drought Monitor impacted futures prices for commodities between 2000 and 2012. Results based on the November futures prices for soybeans indicate that there is a statistically significant difference in mean and variance of absolute percentage price changes between days when the Drought Monitor is released and other days. Further analysis suggests that the effect of the Drought Monitor information varies during the year. In particular, absolute percentage price changes are generally smaller on report days than on non-report days during the winter and spring, but are larger on report days than on non-report days during the summer. Finally, focusing on the impact on prices of the magnitude of drought conditions, there is evidence that larger areas under extreme drought conditions lead to larger absolute price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Brooks, Kathleen & Mattos, Fabio, 2014. "How Do Agricultural Futures Prices Respond To New Information About Drought Conditions?," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285821, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13414:285821
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285821/files/Brooks_Mattos_Schoengold_NCCC-134_2014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285821?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin P. McNew & Juan Andres Espinosa, 1994. "The informational content of USDA crop reports: Impacts on uncertainty and expectations in grain futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 475-492, June.
    2. Piesse, Jenifer & Thirtle, Colin, 2009. "Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 119-129, April.
    3. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    4. repec:cup:jagaec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:89-103_6 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. T. Randall Fortenbery & Daniel A. Sumner, 1993. "The effects of USDA reports in futures and options markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 157-173, April.
    6. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "The Reaction of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets to USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142491, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    9. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "The Reaction of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets to USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142491, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Ying, Jiahui & Chen, Yu & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2017. "Is the Value of USDA Announcement Effects Declining over Time?," 2017 Conference, April 24-25, 2017, St. Louis, Missouri 285877, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, "undated". "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(01), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Xie, Ran & Isengildina-Massa, Olga Isengildina- & Sharp, Julia L., 2014. "Quantifying Public and Private Information Effects on the Cotton Market," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285815, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    8. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    9. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.
    11. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Darby, Jessica L. & McKenzie, Andrew M., 2015. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," 2015 Conference, April 20-21, 2015, St. Louis, Missouri 285835, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    13. Dorfmann, Jeffrey & Karali, Berna, 2015. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), pages 1-20.
    14. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Karali, Berna, 2013. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," 2013 Conference, April 22-23, 2013, St. Louis, Missouri 285795, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    16. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    17. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
    18. Andrew M. McKenzie & Jessica L. Darby, 2017. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 552-568, September.
    19. Lusk, Jayson L., "undated". "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    20. Wang, Xiaoyang & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2012. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285781, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    21. Isengildina-Massa, Olga Isengildina- & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The Value of USDA Information in a Big Data Era," 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri 285854, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:n13414:285821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.