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The Value of USDA Information in a Big Data Era

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  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga Isengildina-
  • Karali, Berna
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Adjemian, Michael K.

Abstract

The goal of this study is to determine how big data and access to information affects the role and impact of USDA’s situation and outlook programs. Changes in market reaction to various USDA reports including WASDE, Crop Production, Grain Stocks, Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Hogs and Pigs and Cattle on Feed reports over 1970-2016 study period were analyzed. Market reaction was measured as a change in volatility of corn, soybean, wheat, lean hogs, live cattle, cotton and frozen concentrated orange juice returns on report release days. Our findings demonstrate that the impact of USDA reports has not diminished and often increased in crops during the recent decade. On the other hand, the value of USDA reports in livestock markets appears to be decreasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga Isengildina- & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The Value of USDA Information in a Big Data Era," 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri 285854, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13416:285854
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285854
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael K. Adjemian, 2012. "Quantifying the WASDE Announcement Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 238-256.
    2. Richard E. Just, 1983. "The Impact of Less Data on the Agricultural Economy and Society," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(5), pages 872-881.
    3. Dorfmann, Jeffrey & Karali, Berna, 2015. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), pages 1-20.
    4. repec:cup:jagaec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:89-103_6 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Georg V. Lehecka & Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Gone in Ten Minutes: Intraday Evidence of Announcement Effects in the Electronic Corn Futures Market," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 504-526.
    6. T. Randall Fortenbery & Daniel A. Sumner, 1993. "The effects of USDA reports in futures and options markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 157-173, April.
    7. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.
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