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Yield trend estimation in the presence of non-constant technological change and weather effects

  • Conradt, Sarah
  • Bokusheva, Raushan
  • Finger, Robert
  • Kussaiynov, Talgat

The application of yield time series in risk analysis prerequisites the estimation of technological trend which might be present in the data. In this paper, we show that in presence of highly volatile yield time series and non-constant technology, the consideration of the weather effect in the trend equation can seriously improve trend estimation results. We used ordinary least squares (OLS) and MM, a robust estimator. Our empirical analysis is based on weather data as well as farm-level and county-level yield data for a sample of grain-producing farms in Kazakhstan.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122541
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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122541.

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Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122541
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.eaae.org
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  1. Roger Claassen & Richard E. Just, 2010. "Heterogeneity and Distributional Form of Farm-Level Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 144-160.
  2. Finger, Robert, 2007. "Evidence of slowing yield growth – the example of Swiss cereal yields," MPRA Paper 9475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jerry R. Skees & J. Roy Black & Barry J. Barnett, 1997. "Designing and Rating an Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 430-438.
  4. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
  5. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion, 2013. "Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges," Post-Print hal-00656778, HAL.
  6. Robert Finger, 2010. "Revisiting the Evaluation of Robust Regression Techniques for Crop Yield Data Detrending," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 205-211.
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